176 Works

A critical assessment of discounting policies for transport Cost-Benefit Analysis in five European practices

Niek Mouter
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long tradition as a broadly-used instrument for assessing transport infrastructure investments. In a CBA, the discount rate often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. One concern is that literature on the subject offers widely differing recommendations regarding which discount rate should be used. What has not yet been studied is the way practitioners translate these (inconclusive) recommendations into the discounting policies applied to transport CBA. This paper aims...

Prediction of late/early arrivals in container terminals – A qualitative approach

Claudia Pani, Thierry Vanelslander, Gianfranco Fancello & Massimo Cannas
Vessel arrival uncertainty in ports has become a very common problem worldwide. Although ship operators have to notify the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at predetermined time intervals, they frequently have to update the latest ETA due to unforeseen circumstances. This causes a series of inconveniences that often impact on the efficiency of terminal operations, especially in the daily planning scenario. Thus, for our study we adopted a machine learning approach in order to provide...

Institutional Development Paths in Seaports: The Southern African Case

Darren Fraser & Theo Notteboom
In the last three decades, transport economists and geographers have published an array of studies on port institutions and governance. Many of these publications emphasize the role of institutions in enabling or inhibiting port efficiencies, port competition (inter and intra) and the development of a port’s resources and capabilities. Political instabilities and their consequential economic lags have to some extent misaligned the pace of institutional reforms in Southern African ports compared with ports in the...

Effect of land use and survey design on trip underreporting in Montreal and Toronto’s regional surveys

Chris Harding, Monika Nasterska, Leila Dianat & Eric J Miller
This paper contributes to the literature on travel survey methods by quantifying the relationship between land use, data collection protocol and trip under-reporting in regional travel surveys. While under-reporting more broadly is a recognized problem, the significant increase in underreporting in denser, more urban-type environments identified here has never before been demonstrated or measured. Consequences of this land use-related bias for transportation planning and modelling are explored. The work is carried out by comparing the...

The Design and Implementation of Driving Time Regulation

Harald Bergland & Pål Andreas Pedersen
Our object of study is welfare optimal driving time regulations in professional road transportation. Due to fatigue, traffic accident risks are supposed to increase as driving times rise. Conversely, the quantity and quality of road infrastructure affect productivity and safety in transportation positively. As the typical driver does not bear all the social costs when accidents happen, in the absence of public regulation, she has an incentive to drive too many hours. Hence, we present...

Editorial: Challenges, specificities and commonalities of transport research and policy within the BENELUX countries – the case of Luxembourg

Geoffrey Caruso, Philippe Gerber, Markus Hesse & Francesco Viti
The papers included in this special issue of the EJTIR evolved from discussions and presentations given at the 2013 Transport Research Day of BIVEC, the ‘Benelux Interuniversity Association of Transport Researchers’, which took place at the University of Luxembourg in May 2013. This biannual event is organized in order to foster scientific exchange on related issues and offers a platform for early career researchers, most importantly PhD candidates, to present their work and receive scientific...

Revealing transition patterns between mono- and multimodal travel patterns over time: A mover-stayer model

Maarten Kroesen & Sander Van Cranenburgh
Recent empirical evidence suggests that travellers are becoming increasingly multimodal. Coinciding with this trend, a growing interest can be observed in the transport literature to study the concept of multimodality. Most studies, in this regard, have focused on assessing the determinants of multimodal travel behaviour. While it is interesting to know which factors, at a certain moment in time, affect the membership of mono/multimodal travel patterns, one general omission in the current literature relates to...

Impact of climate on pipe failure: predictions of failures for drinking water distribution systems

B.A. Wols & P. Van Thienen
The integrity of drinking water distribution systems (DWDS) may be influenced by climate change. Using the statistical relations between failure frequencies and weather conditions described in our previous work (Wols & Van Thienen 2014a), a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of climate change on future DWDSs. The effect of climate change is combined with the evolution of the DWDS. This analysis can be conducted for any DWDS, for which historical failure registrations and...

Modelling the effects of spatial and temporal correlation of population densities in a railway transportation corridor

Ding Liu
The existence of spatial and temporal correlation of population densities has been identified in many previous studies. This paper investigates the effects of spatial and temporal correlation of population densities on system disutility in a railway transportation corridor. System disutility is defined as the summation of households disutility. It shows that spatial and temporal correlation of population densities has significant effects on the results of population densities and the system performance measured in system disutility,...

Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: scenarios for 2030 and 2050

Dimitris Milakis, Maaike Snelder, Bart Van Arem, Bert Van Wee & Gonçalo Homem De Almeida Correia
Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to identify plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and to estimate potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030...

Towards Sustainable Transport Planning in the United States

Tara Ramani, Josias Zietsman & Marie Ridley Pryn
This paper provides an analysis of how sustainability concepts are currently addressed within the broad framework of surface transportation planning in the United States (US). We first discuss the overall transportation planning process in the US, and the role of key agencies and actors. This is followed by a brief assessment of how sustainability is addressed as part of national policies and programs. We then present a case study of the US Federal Highway Administration’s...

Evaluation of railway traffic control efficiency and its determinants

Bart Roets & Johan Christiaens
The present paper fills a gap in the literature by examining the efficiency of railway traffic control. In spite of large-scale migration strategies towards centralised signal boxes (traffic control centres), railway traffic control still remains a labour-intensive process in many European countries. In close collaboration with experts from Infrabel, the Belgian railway infrastructure manager, we develop a two-stage benchmarking framework which assesses and explains railway traffic control efficiency. In the first stage, a bootstrapped Data...

Testing the stability of utility parameters in repeated best, repeated best-worst and one-off best-worst studies

Marek Giergiczny, Thijs Dekker, Stephane Hess & Phani Kumar Chintakayala
Stated choice (SC) surveys are a key tool for studying travel behaviour and are used to inform policy decisions in many countries. Recently, the best-worst (BW) variant of SC has rapidly increased in popularity in fields as diverse as transport, marketing and health research. A key argument for its implementation has been that it is perceived to be easier for respondents to identify the best and the worst alternative in a choice set compared to...

Editorial: Understanding funding and financing of transportation infrastructure

Thierry Vanelslander, Athena Roumboutsos & Aristeidis Pantelias
Investment in transport infrastructure is under pressure. On the one hand, the need for maintaining and/or replacing existing assets as well as building new ones is higher than ever. On the other hand, funding either for maintaining existing assets or building new ones, is severely constrained. Earlier literature proposed to combine all the above factors in the form of indicators that can describe the elements of the transport infrastructure delivery system. At the heart of...

Vertical integration, separation in the rail industry: a survey of empirical studies on efficiency

Malcolm Abbott & Bruce Cohen
Whether vertical separation of the rail industry creates demonstrable performance and efficiency gains is an issue of ongoing economic analysis and public policy debate. To assist in consideration of the merits and disbenefits of vertical separation this paper provides a summary of the different studies that have been undertaken to gauge the effects of vertical separation on the rail industry, and analyses and codifies the main findings of this research. The evidence indicates that whether...

Quantifying energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions of road infrastructure projects: An LCA case study of the Oslo fjord crossing in Norway

Reyn O’Born, Helge Brattebø, Ole Magnus Kålas Iversen, Sofiia Miliutenko & José Potting
The road sector consumes large amounts of materials and energy and produces large quantities of greenhouse gas emissions, which can be reduced with correct information in the early planning stages of road project. An important aspect in the early planning stages is the choice between alternative road corridors that will determine the route distance and the subsequent need for different road infrastructure elements, such as bridges and tunnels. Together, these factors may heavily influence the...

Valuation of the option of early reversion in road concessions

Antonio Sánchez Soliño, Antonio L. Lara Galera & Fernando Cabero Colín
In recent years there has been an increase in the interest in contractual flexibility in infrastructure investments, especially in Public-Private Partnership agreements, characterized by the uncertainty derived from the long duration of contracts. This has led to the extension of the theory of real options to the field of infrastructures, as an appropriate methodology for analyzing flexibility in contracts. Within this line of research, this paper focuses on the analysis of the option of early...

Vulnerability of transport infrastructure to extreme weather events in small rural catchments

Michalis Diakakis, Efthymis Lekkas, Iraklis Stamos & Evangelos Mitsakis
Across the Mediterranean region, extreme weather events (EWE), such as high-intensity storms causing flooding in small river basins, are one of the most common types of hydrometeorological hazards. Flooding has been associated with severe effects on road networks and a significant number of vehicle-related fatalities, raising concerns regarding the performance of transportation infrastructure during EWEs. Given the expected increase in frequency of such events within the context of climate change, an assessment of its vulnerability...

Under which conditions is a PPP relevant for public spending?

Alain Bonnafous & Bruno Faivre D’Arcier
Public authorities increasingly involve the private sector in financing, building and operating new infrastructures. Many reasons are usually given to justify private sector involvement. One of them claims that private operators can manage project construction and operation more efficiently. Nevertheless, whether a public or a private operator, there is a target IRR, very close to the standard notion of Weighted Average Capital Cost (WACC), which is higher in the case of the private alternative because...

Border effects on the travel mode choice of resident and crossborder workers in Luxembourg

Julien Schiebel, Hichem Omrani & Philippe Gerber
We investigate the travel mode choice behaviour of both resident and cross-border workers in Luxembourg. Two categories of mode choice are considered: sustainable (public transport) and unsustainable (single occupancy car use), which both depend on a large set of spatial and sociodemographic variables. In particular, we determine whether and how the borders of the four countries involved (Luxembourg, Belgium, France, Germany) affect this choice. The results of a classical binary logistic regression model show that...

Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

Steen Leleur, Kim Bang Salling, Inga Pilkauskiene & Morten Skou Nicolaisen
Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of...

The effect of wind turbines alongside motorways on drivers’ behaviour

Tim De Ceunynck, Ellen De Pauw, Stijn Daniels, Evelien Polders, Tom Brijs, Elke Hermans & Geert Wets
This paper presents the results of a first study aimed at investigating whether the presence of wind turbines in close proximity to motorways leads to behavioural adaptations among passing drivers. Empirical data from loop detectors and temporary video cameras were analysed in a study employing a before-and-after design at a site near Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Analyses of driving speed and standard deviation of speed (corrected for trend effects through the use of control sites) were...

Implications of survey methods on travel and non-travel activities: A comparison of the Austrian national travel survey and an innovative mobility-activity-expenditure diary (MAED)

Florian Aschauer, Reinhard Hössinger, Kay W. Axhausen, Basil Schmid & Regine Gerike
This paper contributes to the research on non-reporting effects in mixed-method household travel surveys (HTS) in two ways: Firstly, we compare travel activities reported in the established Austrian National HTS (ANTS) with an innovative survey approach, the so-called “MobilityActivity-Expenditure Diary” (MAED), and secondly we extend the analysis to (i) additional travel estimates and to (ii) non-travel activities. The analysis addresses three main goals: (i) identification of non-reporting effects in the HTS for travel estimates, (ii)...

Searching for the Rail Bonus

K. W. Axhausen, T. Haupt & U. Heidl
The inherent superiority of rail-based public transport options over bus-based alternatives, all other things being equal, has been stipulated in the literature and in the public policy discussion for some time. The exact strength of any such rail bonus is important to a public transport operator which has to consider the replacement of rail-based services by bus services. The public transport operator of the city of Dresden (DVB), while generally upgrading its services, has to...

Explaining success and failures in PPP transport projects: an econometric approach

Lourdes Trujillo, Federico Inchausti-Sintes, Javier Campos & Casiano Manrique-De-Lara-Peñate
There are a multitude of factors, both internal and external, that may affect the development and success of any transport project. ‘Success’ is both context-dependent and quite difficult to measure. This paper distinguishes between four types of ‘success’ variables: (lack of) cost overruns; (lack of) time delays; (ex-post) level of traffic; and (generated) revenues. Each variable is modeled in a binary way (using discrete choice models), with each model estimating the relevance of various explanatory...

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