84,210 Works

RISK EFFICIENT PERENNIAL CROP SELECTION: A MOTAD APPROACH TO CITRUS PRODUCTION

Paul W. Teague, John G. Lee, Paul W. Teague & John G. Lee
Numerous studies have analyzed annual crop mix decisions in light of producer risk preferences. Few studies have focused on perennial crop mix decisions. This study attempts to identify not only the optimal mix of grapefruit and oranges for various risk-aversion levels, but also optimal planting densities within each species. Experimental plot data from a grapefruit and orange spacing trial over the 1970-82 period were used in MOTAD formulation to address optimal perennial crop mix and...

FORECASTING AGRICULTURAL PRICES USING A BAYESIAN COMPOSITE APPROACH

Christopher S. McIntosh, David A. Bessler, Christopher S. McIntosh & David A. Bessler
Forecast users and market analysts need quality forecast information to improve their decision-making abilities. When more than one forecast is available, the analyst can improve forecast accuracy by using a composite forecast. One of several approaches to forming composite forecasts is a Bayesian approach using matrix beta priors. This paper explains the matrix beta approach and applies it to three individual forecasts of U.S. hog prices. The Bayesian composite forecast is evaluated relative to composites...

PROCESSOR DEMAND AND PRICE-MARKUP FUNCTIONS FOR CATFISH: A DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OFF-FLAVOR PROBLEM

Henry W. Kinnucan, Scott Sindelar, David Wineholt, L. Upton Hatch, Henry W. Kinnucan, Scott Sindelar, David Wineholt & L. Upton Hatch
Off-flavor in catfish restricts farm marketings 10 to 45% depending on the season. The economic impact on society of this imposed supply restriction depends, in part, on the elasticity of demand for catfish. Econometric estimates based on disaggregated processing plant data indicate an elastic demand at the processor level but an inelastic demand at the farm level. Short-run social welfare gains from the elimination of off-flavor are estimated to equal 12.0% of farm revenues ($10.0...

THE FARM LEVEL EFFECTS OF BETTER ACCESS TO INFORMATION: THE CASE OF DART

Darrell J. Bosch, Katherine L. Lee, Darrell J. Bosch & Katherine L. Lee
In this study, two methods of entering and accessing dairy herd records are compared: the traditional mail-in Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) system and the Direct Access to Records by Telephone (DART) system, which provides more timely and convenient access to records. An evaluation of DART was carried out using mail survey responses from 117 DART users and telephone surveys of 40 randomly selected users. Results indicate that DART users are generally satisfied with the system...

ALLOCATION OF FARM FINANCIAL STRESS AMONG INCOME, LEVERAGE, AND INTEREST RATE COMPONENETS: A KANSAS EXAMPLE

Allen M. Featherstone, Ted C. Schroeder, Robert O. Burton, Allen M. Featherstone, Ted C. Schroeder & Robert O. Burton
Suggested methods to reduce farm financial stress have included interest rate buy-downs and debt forgiveness. This study develops a method to estimate the proportion of individual farm financial stress attributable to an income problem, a leverage problem, and an interest rate problem. Of the Kansas Farm Management Association farms with a financial problem, 30 percent of the total financial problem is caused by an interest rate problem, 28 percent by a leverage problem, and 42...

MISSPECIFICATION IN SIMULTANEOUS SYSTEMS: AN ALTERNATIVE TEST AND ITS APPLICATION TO A MODEL OF THE SHRIMP MARKET

J.D. Lea, John Scott Shonkwiler, J.D. Lea & John Scott Shonkwiler
Concern over the effects of public policies based on misspecified econometric models motivates interest in a procedure to test, diagnose, and improve the specification of models that have been estimated with three-stage least squares. A test of system-wide specification based on Hausman's specification test is employed in a test of the a priori restrictions placed on the parameters of a structural model of the U.S. shrimp market. The null hypothesis of proper specification is rejected....

PREFERENCE AMONG RISKY PROSPECTS UNDER CONSTANT RISK AVERSION

Bruce A. McCarl & Bruce A. McCarl
Risk analyses often require a measure of individual risk aversion. Here a procedure is presented to calculate risk aversion parameter ranges wherein individuals would exhibit preference among a set of risky prospects.

A MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS OF PORK FARM SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE SOUTH

W. Terry Disney, Patricia A. Duffy, William E. Hardy, W. Terry Disney, Patricia A. Duffy & William E. Hardy
Concerns over declining farm numbers, shifts in farm size distribution, and associated infrastructural problems have led to a heightened awareness of structural considerations within policy making circles. Future policy decisions will have substantial structural consequences for the agricultural industry. Often, however, the indirect effects of grain pricing policies on the livestock sector have been overlooked in these policy decisions. The incorporation of price effects into a Markov chain analysis of pork farm size distributions and...

DYNAMIC PRICE ADJUSTMENTS BETWEEN COMMERCIAL AND PUREBRED CATTLE MARKETS

Larry W. Van Tassell, David A. Bessler, Larry W. Van Tassell & David A. Bessler
Vector autoregression was utilized to investigate dynamic relationships existing between prices of purebred bulls and prices of slaughter steers, utility cows, feeder calves, and cow-calf pairs. Results suggest purebred bull prices respond most quickly to an increase in utility cow prices (proxy for slaughter bull prices). Feeder calf prices exhibited the most pronounced positive effect on the price of herd sires, with a lagged response which took over two years to build.

OPTIMAL USE OF QUALITATIVE MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO COUNTRY GRAIN ELEVATOR BANKRUPTCIES

Michael S. Kaylen, Gary T. Devino, Michael H. Procter, Michael S. Kaylen, Gary T. Devino & Michael H. Procter
Qualitative models can be used for decision making under uncertainty. This provides a useful framework for evaluating the models. If the costs for every action/state of nature combination are known, decisions made using a well-calibrated model would result in actual costs being close to expected costs. In addition, the actual cost can be compared to the cost of perfect foresight actions, giving a bound on the value of a better model. Application of these procedures...

FARM INCOME ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL, PART-TIME FARMING OPERATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

Scott Sanford, Luther G. Tweeten, Scott Sanford & Luther G. Tweeten
Linear programming and stochastic farm growth simulation models are used to assess the impact of alternative enterprise selection, variation in farm income, inflation, and off-farm income on the growth of small, part-time farms in East Central Oklahoma. Results indicate that alternative rates of inflation or variation in farm income do not significantly impact the operation or expansion of part-time farming operations. Adoption of alternative enterprises on part-time farms can lead to full-time farming operations where...

THE AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT SIMULATOR MICROCOMPUTER PROGRAM

Robert P. King, J. Roy Black, Fred J. Benson, Patti A. Pavkov, Robert P. King, J. Roy Black, Fred J. Benson & Patti A. Pavkov
The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator (ARMS) is a microcomputer program designed to help users evaluate strategies for managing yield and price risk in crop farming operations. Risk management strategies are defined by choices regarding crop mix, the purchase of multiple peril crop insurance, and the use of forward contracting. Probabilistic budgeting is used to determine the net cash flow probability distribution for each strategy considered. Flexibility with regard to both sources of probabilistic information and...

SUPPLIER SUBSTITUTABILITY BY IMPORTERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSESSING THE 1980 U.S. GRAIN EMBARGO

Philip C. Abbott, Philip L. Paarlberg, Paul M. Patterson, Philip C. Abbott, Philip L. Paarlberg & Paul M. Patterson
The 1980 U.S. suspension of grain sales to the Soviet Union illustrates the importance of the choice of conceptual framework for empirical analysis of international trade problems. A spatial equilibrium model of wheat and coarse grains trade assumes perfect substitution among exporting nations' commodities by importers and, thus, precludes the embargo from having a large impact. The imperfect substitutability assumption of an Armington model results in larger consequences from the embargo. For small shocks, the...

FACTOR DEMANDS OF LOUISIANA RICE PRODUCERS: AN ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION

Patricia E. McLean-Meyinsse, Albert Ade. Okunade, Patricia E. McLean-Meyinsse & Albert Ade. Okunade
A Diewert-flexible (dual) cost function was used to derive a system of conditional factor demand equations for Louisiana rice producers. Generalized Leontief cost and factor share equations were fitted for the 1955-87 period using Zellner's SURE system estimation procedure. The Aitken parameter estimates reveal that: (1) the optimal input mix of rice farmers varies with production scale, (2) the factor-augmenting technical change is labor and chemical saving but seed using, (3) pairwise input substitutions are...

THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS: THE CASE OF WHEAT, CORN, AND SOYBEANS

Tassos Haniotis, John Baffes, Glenn C.W. Ames, Tassos Haniotis, John Baffes & Glenn C.W. Ames
The demand for and supply of U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean exports is specified in a dynamic framework. Obtained results indicate differences in the export behavior of each product. U.S. corn exports are elastic, while U.S. soybean exports exhibit an inelastic response. For wheat, the derived elasticity of export demand had a positive sign. Hypothesis testing validated the dynamic structure of the estimated models in all markets. Stability properties were confirmed in export markets of...

A WELFARE ANALYSIS OF PORT USER FEES: THE CASE OF GRAIN AND SOYEAN EXPORTS

E. Wesley F. Peterson, Hector Viscencio-Brambila, Stephen W. Fuller, E. Wesley F. Peterson, Hector Viscencio-Brambila & Stephen W. Fuller
User fees have become a popular means of financing public services, including certain transportation facilities. The Water Resources Development Act of 1986 includes provisions for user fees to finance part of the costs of operations, maintenance, and new construction of the U.S. port system. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the welfare implications of this legislation. An analytical model is developed and used to estimate the impact of port user fees on grain...

TOWARD AN APPRAISAL OF THE FMHA FARM CREDIT PROGRAM: A CASE STUDY OF THE EFFICIENCY OF BORROWERS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

Seyed Mehdian, William McDaniel Herr, Phillip R. Eberle, Richard Grabowski, Seyed Mehdian, William McDaniel Herr, Phillip R. Eberle & Richard Grabowski
A production frontier methodology is used to measure the overall efficiency of a sample of farms obtaining credit from the Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) compared to nonparticipants. The study did not find evidence that the efficiency of FmHA farms improved between 1981 and 1984. Results indicate that the overall efficiency of FmHA borrowers is associated with selected financial characteristics of the farms.

GRAIN QUALITY AND NORTH AMERICAN HARD WHEAT EXPORTS

William W. Wilson, Bruce L. Dahl, William W. Wilson & Bruce L. Dahl
Past debate on competition and quality in international wheat markets has focused on class and country of origin as the salient source of differentiation. This study analyzes changes in demand for both wheat classes and grades. Comparisons are made between Canadian and U.S. hard wheats, principal competitors in the hard wheat market. Both countries are dominant producers of Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS in the United States and Canadian Western Red Spring [CWRS] in Canada);...

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF LUMBER FUTURES PRICE MOVEMENTS

Randal R. Rucker, Walter N. Thurman, Jonathan K. Yoder, Randal R. Rucker, Walter N. Thurman & Jonathan K. Yoder

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