1,722 Works

Cashless Bank Branches in Canada

Walter Engert & Ben Fung
Cashless or tellerless bank branches have proliferated in several countries in recent years. In a cashless bank branch, teller or counter services such as cash withdrawals, deposits and cheque-cashing are not available.

Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment

Jonathan Chiu, Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang & Yu Zhu
Many central banks are considering whether to issue a new form of electronic money that would be accessible to the public. This new form is usually called a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Issuing a CBDC would have implications for the financial system and, more broadly, the wider economy.

Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets

Christopher D'Souza, Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp
Differences in market structures may affect the manner in which fundamental information is incorporated into prices. High levels of quote and trade transparency plus substantial quoting obligations in European government securities markets ensure that prices are informationally efficient. The relationship between price changes, order flow, relative depth and spreads across European and Canadian short-term government bond markets is examined via a reduced-form vector autoregression model. In European markets, dealers are able to quickly absorb private...

Fads or Bubbles?

Huntley Schaller & Simon van Norden
This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns. By incorporating state-dependent heteroscedasticity into the Cutler, Poterba, and Summers (1991) fads model, we show that it can also lead to regime-switching. Two main features of the bubbles model distinguish it from...

The Effect of Adjustment Costs and Organizational Change on Productivity in Canada: Evidence from Aggregate Data

Danny Leung
A basic neoclassical model of production is often used to assess the contribution of investment to output growth. In the model, investment raises the capital stock and output growth increases in proportion to the growth in capital. It has been argued, however, that computers, as a "general purpose technology," lead to process innovations and facilitate organizational coinvestments. Since there may be a learning period before firms realize the full potential of the new technology and...

Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

Toni Gravelle & Fuchun Li
In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system. Based on relevant but different measurements of systemic risk, we propose a set of market-based measures on the systemic importance of financial institutions, each designed to capture certain aspects of systemic risk....

Liquidity Management of Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: A Machine Learning Approach

Rohan Arora, Chen Fan & Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc
When redeeming shares for investors, bond fund managers must choose a mix of cash and bond sales to honour their commitments. This note uses machine learning algorithms to uncover new patterns in decisions fund managers make to meet redemptions.

Online Job Seekers in Canada: What Can We Learn from Bing Job Queries?

Andre Binette, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Nicholas Curtis, Gabriela Galassi, Scott Counts & Justin Cranshaw
Labour markets in Canada and around the world are evolving rapidly with the digital economy. Traditional data are adapting gradually but are not yet able to provide timely information on this evolution.

Banks, Credit Market Frictions, and Business Cycles

Ali Dib
The author proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector into a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator. He evaluates the role of the banking sector in the transmission and propagation of the real effects of aggregate shocks, and assesses the importance of financial shocks in U.S. business cycle fluctuations. The banking sector consists of two types of profitmaximizing banks that offer different banking services and transact in an interbank market....

The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment

Marc-André Gosselin & Matthieu Verstraete
We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term.

Schooling, Inequality and Government Policy

Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Alexander Ueberfeldt
This paper asks: What is the effect of government policy on output and inequality in an environment with education and labor-supply decisions? The answer is given in a general equilibrium model, consistent with the post 1960s facts on male wage inequality and labor supply in the U.S. In the model, education and labor-supply decisions depend on progressive income taxation, the education system, the social security system, and technology-driven wage differentials. Government policies affect output and...

The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates

Xin Scott Chen & Jose Dorich
The neutral nominal policy rate serves as a benchmark for assessing the degree of monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the policy rate. Since quantitative measures of the neutral rate are subject to considerable uncertainty, Bank staff rely on four different approaches to estimate the Canadian neutral rate. These approaches take explicit account of domestic and global factors, the relative importance of which varies with each approach. Informed by this analysis,...

Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers

Sanjana Bhatnagar, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit, Elise Martin, Vikram Rai, Renaud St-Cyr, Subrata Sarker & Kristina Hess
Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions. In many advanced economies outside of the United States, the decrease in core inflation started in 2016 and was driven primarily by goods prices—most likely because of lower export...

Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios

Karyne B. Charbonneau & Anthony Landry
We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes. Our framework incorporates the most recent data and shows that the trade elasticities have changed considerably since the 1990s—highlighting the need to use recent data to quantitatively evaluate newly imposed and proposed tariff schedules. We apply our model and use our estimated...

How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework

Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt
Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks.

Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Provincial Bond Market Deteriorated?

Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin & Jun Yang
In recent years, the liquidity in the secondary market for Canadian provincial bonds was a concern for many market participants. We find that a proxy for the bid-ask spread has deteriorated modestly since 2010. However, a proxy for price impact as well as measures of trade size, the number of trades and turnover have been stable or improved since 2010. This holds for bonds issued by different provinces and for bonds of different ages and...

Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson C. Mark
We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the HML gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity and inequality of economic performance across countries.

Bank Failures and Bank Fundamentals: A Comparative Analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the Nineties using Bank-Level Data

Marco Arena
The author develops the first comparative empirical study of bank failures during the nineties between East Asia and Latin America using bank-level data, in order to address the following two questions: (i) To what extent did individual bank conditions explain bank failures? (ii) Did mainly the weakest banks, in terms of their fundamentals, fail in the crisis countries? The main results for East Asia and Latin America show that bank-level fundamentals not only significantly affect...

Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody & Carolyn A. Wilkins
Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. As Stock and Watson (2003) find, some financial variables work well in some countries or over some time periods and forecast horizons, but the results do not show any clear pattern. This may be caused by the changing nature of financial structures within countries across time, or the differing types of financial structures across countries. The...

Fire-Sale FDI or Business as Usual?

Ron Alquist, Rahul Mukherjee & Linda Tesar
Using a new data set, we examine the characteristics and dynamics of cross-border mergers and acquisitions during emerging-market financial crises, that is, so-called “fire-sale FDI.” Our findings shed fresh light on whether the transactions undertaken during crisis periods differ in fundamental ways from those undertaken during more tranquil periods. The increase in foreign acquisitions during crises is mainly driven by non-financial acquirers targeting firms in the same industry rather than foreign financial firms. This increase...

Housing and Tax Policy

Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy
In this paper, we investigate the effects of housing-related tax policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates using a dynamic general-equilibrium model. The model features borrowing and lending across heterogeneous households, financial frictions in the form of collateral constraints tied to house prices, and a rental housing market alongside owner-occupied housing. Using our model, we analyze the effects of changes in housing-related tax policy measures on the level of output, tax revenue and household debt, along with...

Employment Effects Of Nominal-Wage Rigidity: An Examination Using Wage-Settlements Data

Umar Ahmed Faruqui
The argument advocating a moderate level of inflation based on the downward nominal-wage rigidity (DNWR) hypothesis rests on three factors: its presence, extent, and negative impact in the labour market. This paper focuses on the employment effect of DNWR. It reviews the evidence presented by Simpson, Cameron, and Hum (1998), in light of a potential bias problem associated with their reduced-form model. We describe modifications to their employment model that aim to better isolate the...

Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP

Yi Zheng & James Rossiter
The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter. Their equation links quarterly Canadian GDP growth with monthly data on retail sales, housing starts, consumer confidence, total hours worked, and U.S. industrial production. The authors use time-series methods to forecast missing observations of the monthly indicators; this allows them to assess the performance of the method under various...

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism at the Sectoral Level

Jean Farès & Gabriel Srour
This paper relies on simple vector autoregressions to investigate the monetary transmission mechanism in broad sectors of the Canadian economy. Two types of disaggregation are considered: one at the level of final expenditures, and one at the level of production. At the level of final expenditures, it is found that a monetary contraction affects exports relatively quickly, and it affects investment much more substantially than the consumption of goods, while it does not seem to...

Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy

Gabriel Srour
This paper compares two types of monetary policy: price-level targeting and inflation targeting. It reviews recent arguments that favour price-level targeting, and examines how certain factors, such as the nature of the shocks affecting the economy and the degree to which agents are forward-looking, bear upon the arguments. The paper then extends the analysis to a small open economy such as Canada's, and considers whether it is practical for this country to pursue price-level targets...

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