1,722 Works

New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures for Canada, the United States, and the Euro Area

Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan
Recent research on the new Phillips curve (NPC) (e.g., Galí, Gertler, and López-Salido 2001a) gives marginal cost an important role in capturing pressures on inflation. In this paper we assess the case for using alternative measures of marginal cost to improve the empirical fit of the NPC. Following Sbordone (2000), we derive the aggregation factors when firms use Cobb-Douglas with overhead labour and constant elasticity of substitution (CES) technologies. We estimate the NPC for Canada,...

Commodities and Monetary Policy: Implications for Inflation and Price Level Targeting

Don Coletti, René Lalonde, Paul Masson, Dirk Muir & Stephen Snudden
We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important consequences for global commodity prices. We find that commodities can play a key role in affecting the relative merits of the alternative monetary policy frameworks. In particular, large real adjustment costs in energy supply and demand induce highly persistent cost-push pressures...

Predetermined Prices and the Persistent Effects of Money on Output

Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman
This paper illustrates a model of predetermined pricing, where firms set a fixed schedule of nominal prices at the time of price readjustment, based on the work of Fischer (1977). This type of price-setting specification cannot produce any excess persistence in a fixed-duration model of staggered prices, but we show that with a probabilistic model of price adjustment, as in Calvo (1983), a predetermined pricing specification can produce excess persistence. Moreover, in response to a...

Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada

Grahame Johnson
Financial market expectations regarding future policy actions by the Bank of Canada are an important input into the Bank's decision-making process, and they can be measured using a variety of sources. The author develops a simple expectations-based model to focus on measuring interest rate expectations that are implied by the current level of money market yields. The explanatory power of this model increases markedly in the period following the implementation of the Bank's regime of...

Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies

Ali Dib
The author develops and estimates a quantitative dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy (SOE) with domestic and import price stickiness and capital-adjustment costs. A monetary policy rule allows the central bank to systematically manage the short-term nominal interest rate in response to deviations of inflation, output, and money growth from their steadystate levels. The structural parameters of the SOE model, as well as those of a sticky-price model for a closed economy (CE), are...

A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard

Warren E. Weber
This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Because the Bitcoin standard would closely resemble the gold standard, the paper explores the lessons about how it...

The Ex-Ante Versus Ex-Post Effect of Public Guarantees

H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp & Adi Mordel
In October 2006, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) introduced new ratings for banks that account for the potential of government support. The rating changes are not a reflection of any changes in the respective banks’ credit fundamentals. We use this natural experiment to evaluate the consequences of bail out expectations for bank behavior using a difference in differences approach. The results suggest a striking difference between the effects of bail out probabilities during calm times...

When Lower Risk Increases Profit: Competition and Control of a Central Counterparty

Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Héctor Pérez Saiz & Joshua Slive
We model the behavior of dealers in Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivatives markets where a small number of dealers trade with a continuum of heterogeneous clients (hedgers). Imperfect competition and (endogenous) default induce a familiar trade-off between competition and risk. Increasing the number of dealers servicing the market decreases the price paid by hedgers but lowers revenue for dealers, increasing the probability of a default. Restricting entry maximizes welfare when dealers’ efficiency is high relative to their...

Uninsured Idiosyncratic Production Risk with Borrowing Constraints

Francisco Covas
The author analyzes a general-equilibrium model of a heterogeneous agents economy in which the agents are subject to borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. In particular, he addresses the impact of these frictions on entrepreneurial investment and illustrates the trade-off between production risk and precautionary savings faced by the entrepreneur. In contrast to other studies, the author's results suggest that, when entrepreneurs' earnings are poorly diversified and production risk mainly affects the total output...

Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis

Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian
The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. They focus on Galí and Gertler's (1999) specification, for both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational-expectations assumption, and a modification to the latter that uses survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behaviour,...

Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion in Canada: An Empirical Assessment

Andre Binette & Sylvain Martel
The authors investigate empirically the relationship between different aspects of inflation and relative price dispersion in Canada using a Markov regime-switching Phillips curve. They examine three theories that explain movements in relative price dispersion: the signal extraction model, the extension of the signal extraction model, and the menu cost model. The authors show that expected inflation, which is captured by the menu cost model, is the aspect of inflation that is most closely associated with...

Subordinated Debt and Market Discipline in Canada

Greg Caldwell
The author documents the use by Canadian banks of subordinated debt (SD) as a capital instrument. He reviews the economic benefits of this asset as a mechanism for market discipline and highlights academic and policy research over the past 20 years. The author provides both qualitative and quantitative summaries of the current regulatory and market environment in Canada, and conducts a Tobit analysis of factors that affect a bank's decision to issue SD. He also...

The Role of Credit in International Business Cycles

TengTeng Xu
This paper examines the role of bank credit in modeling and forecasting business cycle fluctuations, and investigates the international transmission of US credit shocks, using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and associated country-specific error correction models. The paper constructs and compiles a dataset on bank credit for 33 advanced and emerging market economies from 1979Q1 to 2009Q4. The empirical results suggest that the incorporation of credit provides significant improvement in modeling and forecasting output...

Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico

Jeannine Bailliu, Daniel Garcés, Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher
The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico. The authors focus on three models that have some theoretical foundations and that can therefore help explain the causes of inflation as well as...

Governance and Financial Fragility: Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries

Michael Francis
The author explores the role of governance mechanisms as a means of reducing financial fragility. First, he develops a simple theoretical general-equilibrium model in which instability arises due to an agency problem resulting from a conflict of interest between the borrower and lender. In particular, when governance is weak and transaction costs are high, the share of capital assets that creditors can claim as collateral is highly sensitive to shocks. As a result, there is...

Asset Allocation Using Extreme Value Theory

Younes Bensalah
This paper examines asset allocation strategies in an extreme value at risk (VaR) framework in which the risk measure is the p-quantile from the extreme value distribution. The main focus is on the allocation problem faced by an extremely risk-averse institution, such as a central bank. The optimal portfolio in terms of excess return over the risk-free rate per unit of risk is also described. An example of asset allocation is presented using a 1-year...

Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage

Marie-Helene Felt
In many developed countries, cash payments are falling or already very low. At the same time, contactless payments are becoming more common around the globe. Because they mimic some desirable features of cash and are typically used for smaller-value transactions, contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. This study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in cash transactions, based on Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017....

Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective

Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter & Kevin Moran
The long-run relation between growth and inflation has not yet been studied in the context of nominal price and wage rigidities, despite the fact that these rigidities now figure prominently in workhorse macroeconomic models. We therefore integrate staggered price- and wage-setting into an endogenous growth framework. In this setting, growth and inflation are linked via the incentive to innovate. For standard calibrations, the linkage is strong: as trend inflation shifts from –5 to 5 percent,...

Perceived Inflation Persistence

Monica Jain
The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has had vast influence on research related to better understanding expectation formation and the behaviour of macroeconomic agents. Inflation expectations, in particular, have received a great deal of attention, since they play a crucial role in determining real interest rates, the expectations-augmented Phillips curve and monetary policy. One feature of the SPF that has surprisingly not been explored is the natural way in which it can be used to...

Expansion of Higher Education, Employment and Wages: Evidence from the Russian Transition

Natalia Kyui
This paper analyzes the effects of an educational system expansion on labour market outcomes, drawing upon a 15-year natural experiment in the Russian Federation. Regional increases in student intake capacities in Russian universities, a result of educational reforms, provide a plausibly exogenous variation in access to higher education. Additionally, the gradual nature of this expansion allows for estimation of heterogeneous returns to education for individuals who successfully took advantage of increasing educational opportunities. Using simultaneous...

Financial Development and the Volatility of Income

Tiago Pinheiro, Francisco Rivadeneyra & Marc Teignier
This paper presents a general equilibrium model with endogenous collateral constraints to study the relationship between financial development and business cycle fluctuations in a cross-section of economies with different sizes of their financial sector. The financial sector can amplify or dampen the volatility of income by increasing or reducing the business cycle effects of technological shocks. We find a non-monotonic relationship between the volatility of income and financial development measured by total borrowing and lending....

The Macroeconomic Effects of Military Buildups in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework

Alain Paquet, Louis Phaneuf & Nooman Rebei
The authors study the macroeconomic consequences of large military buildups using a New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) approach that combines nominal rigidities within imperfectly competitive goods and labour markets. They show that the predictions of the NNS framework generally are consistent with the sign, timing, and magnitude of how hours worked, after-tax real wages, and output actually respond to an upsurge in military purchases. The key factors leading to these findings are: (i) variations in the...

Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models

Claudia Godbout & Marco J. Lombardi
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis. To do so, we construct factor models to forecast Japanese GDP and its subcomponents, using 38 data series (including daily, monthly and quarterly variables) over the...

On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers from Ecuador

Craig Benedict, Mario J. Crucini & Anthony Landry
In this paper, we argue that differences in the cost structures across sectors play an important role in firms’ decisions to adjust their prices. We develop a menu-cost model of pricing in which retail firms intermediate trade between producers and consumers. An important facet of our analysis is that the labor-cost share of retail production differs across goods and services in the consumption basket. For example, the price of gasoline at the retail pump is...

Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard

Paul Masson & Malik Shukayev
Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed. It suggests that PT would likely operate with an escape clause that allowed rebasing of the price...

Registration Year

  • 2022
    93
  • 2021
    1,551
  • 2020
    78

Resource Types

  • Text
    1,722

Affiliations

  • Bank of Canada
    1,467
  • European Central Bank
    8
  • University of Quebec at Montreal
    7
  • University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
    7
  • Queen's University
    7
  • Université Laval
    7
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    6
  • McGill University
    5
  • University of Wisconsin–Madison
    5
  • Bank of England
    5