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Tsunami travel time estimates for local sources for Porirua and Kapiti Coast suburbs

Xiaoming Wang, Biljana Lukovic, Christof Mueller, David W. Heron & William L. Power
In local fault source tsunami events, the effectiveness of self-evacuation planning is constrained by two pieces of timing information: the tsunami travel (arrival) time estimate and evacuation travel time estimate. This study estimates travel times of tsunami from local active fault sources to coastal suburbs of Porirua and Kāpiti Coast in the Greater Wellington region of New Zealand. The estimates include the arrivals of 1.0 m tsunami elevation above local ambient sea condition, i.e. the...

Average coseimic slip profiles

Kiran K.S. Thingbaijam, Russ J. Van Dissen, B. E. Shaw & Matt C. Gerstenberger
Despite the potential impact on earthquake rupture forecasts for seismic hazard analysis, derivation of applicable average coseismic slip profiles has received relatively limited attention. Here, we present improved insight using a set of rupture models of past earthquakes. We find that along-strike slip profiles are well approximated by a power-of-sine function with index = 1/2 (i.e. sinesqrt function), corroborating Biasi and Weldon (2006). However, elongated ruptures (with aspect ratios >5.0) have a flatter profile. Additionally,...

Spatial distribution of earthquake occurrence for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision

Sepideh J. Rastin, David A. Rhoades, Chris Rollins, Matt C. Gerstenberger, Annemarie Christophersen & Kiran K. S. Thingbaijan
Our goal is to estimate the decadal-to-centurial (~100-year) spatial distribution of earthquake occurrence for the distributed seismicity model of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update. This report describes the development of candidate models for the spatial seismicity distribution that will need to be assigned to branches of a logic tree to contribute to the distributed seismicity model. Multiplicative hybrid models help us to assess the relative value of different data inputs, including...

New Zealand Paleoseismic Site Database: design and overview of version 1.0

Nicola J. Litchfield, Jade Humphrey, Regine Morgenstern, Robert M. Langridge, Genevieve L. Coffey & Russ J. Van Dissen
The New Zealand Paleoseismic Site Database (new term, new database) contains paleoseismic data (grouped into Slip Rate, Earthquake [EQ] Timings and Recurrence Interval [RI], and Single-Event Displacement [SED]) collected at specific sites along active faults throughout New Zealand. The database was developed as part of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 Revision Project (NSHM 2022). The primary purpose is to compile paleoseismic data at specific sites to be used either as inputs into,...

2021 New Zealand Ground-Motion Database

Jesse Hutchinson, Brendon A. Bradley, Robin Lee, Liam Wotherspoon, Mike Dupuis, Claudio Schill, Jason Motha, Anna E. Kaiser & Elena F. Manea
This report summarises the development of the 2021 New Zealand ground-motion database. Ground-motion intensity measures have been computed from strong-motion recordings for events with moment (and moment-equivalent) magnitudes equal to or greater than 4.0 from the year 2000 until the end of 2020. These measures include peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, cumulative absolute velocity, Arias intensity and pseudo-acceleration response spectra, among others. Along with these intensity measures, we have determined and/or collated earthquake rupture...

New Zealand Community Fault Model - version 1.0

Hannu Seebeck, Russ J. Van Dissen, Nicola J. Litchfield, P. M. Barnes, Andy Nicol, Rob M. Langridge, David J. A. Barrell, Pilar Villamor, Susan M. Ellis & Mark S. Rattenbury
Fault models developed by the scientific community aim to provide a consistent and broadly agreed-upon representation of faults in a region for such societally important endeavours as seismic hazard assessment (e.g. national seismic hazard models), strong ground-motion predictions and physics-based fault systems modelling. The New Zealand Community Fault Model (NZ CFM) is a two- and three-dimensional representation of fault zones associated with the New Zealand plate boundary for which Quaternary activity has been established (or...

A simple model of faulting patterns for distributed seismicity in New Zealand

Kiran K.S. Thingbaijam, Mark S. Rattenbury, Russ J. Van Dissen, Matt C. Gerstenberger & John Ristau
We construct a preliminary model of faulting mechanisms, namely the New Zealand Distributed Seismicity Faulting Model, for events with magnitude larger than MW 6.5. This model will complement the distributed seismicity models for shallow (hypocentral depths ≤40 km) crustal earthquakes in New Zealand and inform the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. Input datasets include the New Zealand Community Fault Model, the New Zealand Active Fault Database and geological map-based fault datasets, and delineations...

Regional fault orientation and length analysis, Aotearoa New Zealand

Mark S. Rattenbury
Over the past few decades, several faults have been identified in Aotearoa New Zealand only because they ruptured in recent damaging earthquakes. The recognition of these previously unidentified earthquake-generating faults has heightened awareness of seismic hazard that extends beyond Aotearoa New Zealand’s large, but still fragmentary, record of known active faults. This has reinforced how important estimating distributed ‘off-fault’ seismicity is for characterising earthquake hazard. To help quantify aspects of distributed seismicity for the National...

Interpretation of Geophysical data from the Eastern margin of the Okataina Volcanic Centre

R. Lithgow, Cecile Massiot, Edward A. Bertrand, Wiebke Heise, Craig A. Miller, Stewart L. Bennie, Thomas Brakenrig, Lauren Coup & Nick Macdonald
The Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is an active caldera complex located in the Taupō Volcanic Zone that has experienced at least four probable caldera collapses since 550 ka. Imaging the shape of the caldera and its margins is important to reconstruct the timing and mechanisms of the successive caldera collapses, and provide the context to interpret monitoring signals of the volcano’s activity. However, topographic margins observable on the surface do not necessarily reflect the major...

Accounting for earthquake rates’ temporal and spatial variability through least-information Uniform Rate Zone forecasts

P. Iturrieta, Matt C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ J. Van Dissen, T. Wang & D. Schorlemmer
The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary. In low-seismicity regions, non-stationarity and data scarcity may preclude a significant statistical analysis. We investigate the performance of traditional stationary Poisson forecasts (such as smoothed-seismicity models [SSM]), with applications in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, in terms of the available training data. We design bootstrap experiments that use multiple pairs of consecutive training-forecast windows of a catalogue to: (i) analyse the lowest available training data...

Landslide hazard and risk assessment for the Fox and Franz Josef Glacier valleys

Chris I. Massey, Saskia J. de Vilder, T. Taig, Biljana Lukovic, Garth C. Archibald & Regine Morgenstern
This report has been prepared by the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited (GNS Science) for the Department of Conservation (DOC), in response to a request from them for a quantitative assessment of the risk posed by landslides within the Fox and Franz Josef Glacier valleys. The quantitative landslide risk assessment is based on risk-estimation methods that follow appropriate parts of the Australian Geomechanics Society framework for landslide risk management. It provides landslide risk...

GeoNet landslide response: Nelson-Tasman District, 16-19 August 2022

Chris I. Massey, Dougal B. Townsend, Kerry Leith, Brenda J. Rosser & Jason Farr
During 16–19 August 2022, an extreme rainfall event affected much of New Zealand. The National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) refer to this event as the “strongest August atmospheric river (AR) on record” and classified it as a 1-in-120-year rain event for Nelson. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) classified the event as ‘N1’, which elicits a minor national-level response. The rain event triggered many hundreds of landslides and flooding across the Nelson...

New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 revision : model, hazard and process overview

Matt E. Gerstenberger, Sanjay S. Bora, Brendon A. Bradley, Chris DiCaprio, Russ J. Van Dissen, G. M. Atkinson, Chris Chamberlain, Annemarie Christophersen, Kate J. Clark & Genevieve L. Coffey
The New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2022 revision has involved significant revision of all datasets and model components. In this report, we present a subset of the many results from the model, as well as an overview of the governance, scientific and review processes followed by the NSHM team. The NSHM 2022 models and results are available online, and more extensive results can be found at http://gns.cri.nz/nshm. (The authors)

Bathymetric Map of Lake Tarawera, New Zealand

Cornel E.J. de Ronde, Fabio Caratori-Tontini & Jenny A. Black
This map poster shows a detailed view of the lake floor bathymetry In Lake Tarawera at a scale of 1:19,000. There are also three smaller maps detailing free air gravity, total magnetic intensity and conductive heat-flow over the lake. The main map shows lake floor features and other subtleties that likely have not been seen for centuries. This includes prominent ridges that strike into the lake from the west and southwest and the extension of...

Ash leachate characteristics of the 27 April 2016 and 13 September 2016 eruptions of Whakaari/White Island volcano

Carol Stewart, Geoff N. Kilgour & Michael D. Rosenberg
Volcanic ash samples from the 27 April 2016 and 13 September 2016 eruptions of Whakaari / White Island volcano were collected on-island within 24 hours of each eruption. Water-extractable concentrations of a range of elements were determined in these samples, following the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network (IVHHN) protocol. These results are reported here to add to the broader geochemical data series for Whakaari / White Island and because of interest in the 2016 ash...

The 2021 pilot gravity survey of Rongotai Isthmus

Vaughan M. , Jenny Black, Matt P. Hill, Wanda R. Stratford & Brook Tozer
he subsurface of the Rongotai isthmus, the land area of the Rongotai–Miramar region of Wellington, consists of a series of Quaternary sedimentary basins upon which key infrastructure for Wellington City reside. Basin depths and geometries, critical parameters for seismic microzoning and hazard modelling, are currently poorly constrained in this region. In this study, we describe a pilot study where gravity data were acquired in a busy urban environment and modelled to evaluate the method for...

A seismogenic slab source model for New Zealand

Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Matt C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Annemarie Christophersen, Charles A. Williams, John Ristau, Sepideh J. Rastin, J. Fraser & Russ J. Van Dissen
We present an advanced model for intraslab seismicity in the Hikurangi and Puysegur subduction zones. To develop the model, we use improved datasets: a geospatial configuration of the subduction geometry, an updated earthquake catalogue and a regional moment tensor solution catalogue. We adopt two different strategies, areal zonation of uniform seismicity and smooth-seismicity distribution. The areal zonation is implemented by demarcating shallower (≤40 km) and deeper (>40 km) regions of the slabs. We find that...

Wellbeing approaches to improved decision making in Aotearoa New Zealand

Robyn Ramsden, Lucy H. Kaiser & A. Lo
This report summarises the findings of a GNS Science and Victoria University of Wellington Summer Internship project investigating the use of wellbeing frameworks (specifically, the Living Standards Framework and He Ara Waiora) by government in Aotearoa New Zealand. Specifically, this project examines the interfaces between wellbeing fundamentals and the way that the New Zealand Treasury’s Living Standards Framework is used by different stakeholders in their decision making, measuring and reporting. (The authors)

An experimental study on the potential of Rhenium and Indium as geothermal tracers

Lucjan Sajkowski, A. Kamiya & Bruce W. Mountain
The experiment described in this report tested indium (In) and rhenium (Re) as potential geothermal tracers up to super-hot and supercritical conditions. The results show that Re is potentially a suitable candidate, however, In is not. The flow-through experiments were conducted in the temperature range of 200–400°C, and in presence of a NZ greywacke rock substrate. The results indicate that Re behaves conservatively, in presence of the rock and H2S. But supercritical conditions however, the...

National Seismic Hazard Model : Site Characterisation Database summary report

L. M. Wotherspoon, Anna E. Kaiser, Elena F. Manea & A. C. Stolte
This report summarises the development of the 2022 Site Characterisation Database as part of the 2022 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update. The database provides a set of site characterisation parameters defined at past and present GeoNet seismic instrument locations. The datasets and methodology used to assign site parameter values are presented, including how these have evolved since the 2017 version of the database (Kaiser et al. 2017). The site database includes key site parameters...

Understanding the data management needs for crowdsourcing New Zealand’s hazards

Sara E. Harrison, Sally H. Potter, Rachel V. Lawson & Angela G. Griffin
There is an opportunity to use crowdsourcing and citizen science approaches to collect observations from the New Zealand public about geohazards and their impacts. Utilising crowdsourcing and citizen science to collect this hazard and impact information would lead to multiple benefits, including increasing public engagement in science and awareness of natural hazards, being able to rapidly collect and share information for response and scientific purposes, filling sensor gaps and building situational awareness. Implementing a crowdsourcing...

2022 Revision of the National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand : overview of site/basin effects, including a case study of the Wellington Basin

Anna E. Kaiser, Elena F. Manea, L. M. Wotherspoon, Matt P. Hill, C. de la Torre, A. Stolte, Sanjay S. Bora, Brendon A. Bradley & Matt C. Gerstenberger
This report provides a high-level overview of the treatment of site/basin effects in New Zealand seismic hazard. We outline progress of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) working group on national site characterisation and a Wellington Basin case study. A key goal of the 2022 NSHM programme was an update of the site characterisation database (Wotherspoon et al. 2022), which provides a suite of site parameters for the full 870 national seismic network stations in...

Te Tai-o-Rēhua – Silent Tsunami: voyage report R/V Tangaroa TAN2205, 17 March – 7 April 2022, Wellington–Wellington

Jess I. T. Hillman, S. J. Watson, Suzanne Bull, Malcolm J. Arnot, A. Pallentin, W. Quinn, E. Spain, Suzi Woelz, S. Coursey, G. Warren, F. Warnke & D. Krylova
This report documents the voyage objectives, outcomes and preliminary results of the GNS-Science-led R/V Tangaroa voyage TAN2205, which took place from 15 March to 7 April 2022 in the eastern Tasman Sea (Deepwater Taranaki Basin). The over-arching aim of the voyage was to acquire new information to help progress our understanding of the link between submarine landslides and tsunami in the Tasman Sea. The voyage is part of the 2021 Ministry of Business, Innovation &...

Explainable Artificial Intelligence for unsupervised models

Rob Buxton
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is a branch of Computer Science that is gaining popularity, as it addresses the fundamental concept of ‘trust in AI’ – in other words, when users should trust outputs from Artificial Intelligence (AI) models (Ribeiro et al. 2016). GNS Science has been studying XAI as part of a collaboration with Callaghan Innovation since 2020. Callaghan Innovation’s focus has been on XAI applied to supervised AI models. For the 2020/21 financial year,...

Registration Year

  • 2022

Resource Types

  • Text


  • GNS Science
  • University of Canterbury
  • University of Auckland
  • National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
  • Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
  • Victoria University of Wellington
  • University of Otago
  • Indiana University
  • Columbia University
  • Missouri University of Science and Technology