The Politicized Social Structure as Medium-Term Stable Basis of a German Normal Vote

Franz Urban Pappi & Susumu Shikano
A normal vote is a hypothetical election result following exclusively from predispositions of voters towards political parties which result from long-term or middle-term influences. The influence of short-term factors like attractive candidates or issues from the recent campaign has to be eliminated within the abstract model. As an operationalization for German Bundestag elections for this purpose the average vote intentions of population groups are used which are part of the politicized German social structures such...
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