Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Beniamino Guerra, Sarah R Haile, Bernd Lamprecht, Ana S Ramírez, Pablo Martinez-Camblor, Bernhard Kaiser, Inmaculada Alfageme, Pere Almagro, Ciro Casanova, Cristóbal Esteban-González, Juan J Soler-Cataluña, Juan P De-Torres, Marc Miravitlles, Bartolome R Celli, Jose M Marin, Gerben Ter Riet, Patricia Sobradillo, Peter Lange, Judith Garcia-Aymerich, Josep M Antó, Alice M Turner, Meilan K Han, Arnulf Langhammer, Linda Leivseth, Per Bakke … & Milo A Puhan
Background: External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD. Methods: We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary...
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