Probability of Secondary Crash Occurrence on Freeways with the Use of Private-Sector Speed Data

Noah Goodall
A percentage of crashes on freeways are suspected to be caused in part by congestion or distraction from earlier incidents. Identification and prevention of these secondary crashes are major goals of transportation agencies, yet the characteristics of secondary crashes—in particular the probability of their occurrence—are poorly understood. Many secondary crashes occur when a vehicle encounters nonrecurring congestion, yet previous efforts to identify incident queues and their secondary crashes have relied either on deterministic queuing theory...
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