ОЦЕНКА ПРОГНОСТИЧЕСКОЙ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПАРАМЕТРОВ ВЕРОЯТНОСТНОЙ МОДЕЛИ СЕЙСМИЧЕСКОГО РЕЖИМА

V.V. Bogdanov & A.V. Pavlov
On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka earthquakes catalog the subset of random events was specified and their probabilities were calculated. The received probabilities of random events considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with energy class KS 14. Their effectiveness V, reliability R and prediction efficiency (informative) J were calculated for periods of seismic activity and seismic calm.