Management of Disease-triggered Shocks in Complex Value Chains: An Ex Ante Analysis of Market Effects of HPAI Control in the Dutch Egg Supply Chain

Natasha Longworth, Roel A. Jongeneel & Helmut W. Saatkamp
External shocks, such as disease occurrence, can be very disruptive in complex food producing value chains. To analyze this, a vertically linked dynamic partial equilibrium model was used to analyze market effects of outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in The Netherlands. Various shock inducing scenarios were analyzed, e.g control strategy, demand shocks and trade bans. The results showed that in densely populated poultry areas (1) market effects usually outweigh direct control costs, (2)...
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