Accounting for earthquake rates’ temporal and spatial variability through least-information Uniform Rate Zone forecasts

P. Iturrieta, Matt C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ J. Van Dissen, T. Wang & D. Schorlemmer
The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary. In low-seismicity regions, non-stationarity and data scarcity may preclude a significant statistical analysis. We investigate the performance of traditional stationary Poisson forecasts (such as smoothed-seismicity models [SSM]), with applications in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, in terms of the available training data. We design bootstrap experiments that use multiple pairs of consecutive training-forecast windows of a catalogue to: (i) analyse the lowest available training data...
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