A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. DURUM WHEAT AND PASTA MARKETS

Ronald A. Babula, Karl M. Rich, Ronald A. Babula & Karl M. Rich
A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly...
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