Probabilistic Prediction of Collisions between Cyclists and Vehicles Based on Uncertainty of Cyclists’ Movements

Di Pan, Yong Han, Qianqian Jin, Jin Kan, Hongwu Huang, Koji Mizuno & Robert Thomson
The uncertainty of cyclists’ movements has a significant impact on predicting the risk of collisions between cyclists and vehicles. The purpose of this study was to provide a method for assessing collision risk using probability, taking into account the uncertainty of cyclists’ movements. A cyclist model was first developed using a first-order Markov model. Then, based on Monte Carlo sampling, the distribution characteristics of the minimum distance and the time-to-collision (TTC) between the vehicle and...
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