Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of Public Health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1

Matthias An Der Heiden, Udo Buchholz, Gérard Krause, Göran Kirchner, Hermann Claus & Walter Haas
Background: On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared phase 6 of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. Although by the end of September 2009, the novel virus had been reported from all continents, the impact in most countries of the northern hemisphere has been limited. The return of the virus in a second wave would encounter populations that are still nonimmune and not vaccinated yet. We modelled the effect of control strategies to reduce...
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