Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output

Francisco Barillas & Christoph Schleicher
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions. They find that the seven sectors under consideration contain five common trends and five codependent cycles and use their estimates to obtain a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition to isolate and compare the common components. A forecast error variance...
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