The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. Structural parameters are either calibrated, or estimated using data pre-filtered to extract trends. Such procedures treat past and future trends as fully known by all economic agents or, at least, as independent of cyclical behaviour. With such a setup, in a...