How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov & Wheaton Welbourn
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Using a Cobb-Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock,...
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