Managing GDP Tail Risk

Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Our practical framework provides monetary and macroprudential policy-makers with guidance on the trade-off between GDP tail risk and the most likely growth path for future GDP. Focusing on Canada, we compare the effectiveness of...
This data repository is not currently reporting usage information. For information on how your repository can submit usage information, please see our documentation.