Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution

Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt
"When central banks lower interest rates or governments boost spending during economic downturns, they aim to improve the outlook. But can those policies also change the risks around the outlook by, for example, avoiding the worst possible outcomes that may have only a small chance of occurring? To answer this, we build a new framework to empirically assess how monetary and fiscal policy influence the possibility of future GDP growth being stronger (upside risk) or...
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