Stochastic Delay Prediction in Large Train Networks

Annabell Berger, Andreas Gebhardt, Matthias Müller-Hannemann & Martin Ostrowski
In daily operation, railway traffic always deviates from the planned schedule to a certain extent. Primary initial delays of trains may cause a whole cascade of secondary delays of other trains over the entire network. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model for delay propagation and forecasts of arrival and departure events which is applicable to all kind of public transport (not only to railway traffic). Our model is fairly realistic, it includes general...