Data from: Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure

David R. Roberts, Volker Bahn, Simone Ciuti, Mark S. Boyce, Jane Elith, Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, Severin Hauenstein, José J. Lahoz-Monfort, Boris Schröder, Wilfried Thuiller, David I. Warton, Brendan A. Wintle, Florian Hartig & Carsten F. Dormann
Ecological data often show temporal, spatial, hierarchical (random effects), or phylogenetic structure. Modern statistical approaches are increasingly accounting for such dependencies. However, when performing cross-validation, these structures are regularly ignored, resulting in serious underestimation of predictive error. One cause for the poor performance of uncorrected (random) cross-validation, noted often by modellers, are dependence structures in the data that persist as dependence structures in model residuals, violating the assumption of independence. Even more concerning, because often...
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