Data from: A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda

François Blanquart, Mary Kate Grabowski, Joshua Herbeck, Fred Nalugoda, David Serwadda, Michael A. Eller, Merlin L. Robb, Ronald Gray, Godfrey Kigozi, Oliver Laeyendecker, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Gertrude Nakigozi, Thomas C. Quinn, Steven J. Reynolds, Maria J. Wawer & Christophe Fraser
Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of...
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