Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy: A Personalized Prediction Tool

Ashwani Jha, Cheongeun Oh, Dale Hesdorffer, Beate Diehl, Sasha Devore, Martin Brodie, Torbjörn Tomson, Josemir W. Sander, Thaddeus S. Walczak & Orrin Devinsky
Objective: To develop and validate a tool for individualised prediction of Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy (SUDEP) risk, we re-analysed data from one cohort and three case-control studies undertaken 1980-2005. Methods: We entered 1273 epilepsy cases (287 SUDEP, 986 controls) and 22 clinical predictor variables into a Bayesian logistic regression model. Results: Cross-validated individualized model predictions were superior to baseline models developed from only average population risk or from generalised tonic-clonic seizure frequency (pairwise difference...
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