Global changes alter the dynamics of biodiversity, and are forecasted to continue or worsen in the decades to come. Modelling approaches used to anticipate these impacts are mainly based on the equivalence between spatial and temporal response to environmental forcings, generally called space-for-time substitution. However, several processes are known to generate deviations between spatial and temporal responses, potentially undermining the prediction based on space-for-time substitution. We here used high-resolution data from the french breeding bird...