Extirpated prairie species demonstrate more variable phenological responses to warming than extant congeners

Meredith Zettlemoyer, Katarina Renaldi, Michael Muzyka & Jennifer Lau
Premise of the study. Shifting phenology in response to climate is one mechanism that can promote population persistence and geographic spread; therefore, species with limited ability to phenologically track changing environmental conditions may be more susceptible to population declines. Alternatively, apparently, nonresponding species may demonstrate divergent responses to multiple environmental conditions experienced across seasons. Methods. Capitalizing on herbarium records from across the Midwestern United States and detailed botanical surveys documenting local extinctions over the past...
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