Predicted outcomes from land use change scenarios in upland Wales catchments

N. Small, H. Prosser & I. Durance
A spatial approach was developed to interpret qualitatively expressed scenarios, and predict the probability and amount of change for 10 land-cover types across 127 sub-catchments in upland Wales. Existing data, which have a temporal coverage of 1998-2007, were used for the underpinning mapping, and fed into the tabular land cover change summary data. For each scenario, the maximum and minimum land-cover change was projected using rules based on current land cover, agricultural land quality, ownership...
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