A Year of COVID-19 and Crime in England and Wales

Anthon Dixon & Graham Farrell
Charts show percent change in recorded crime and anti-social behaviour relative to what would be expected without the pandemic, for March 2020 to February 2021. Expected rates were calculated using 5-year ARIMA models. 95% confidence intervals are shaded. This spans first (~Apr-Jun 2020), second (Nov 2020) and third (here Jan-Feb) national lockdowns. First national lockdown effects were larger than second, with third lockdown effects in 2021 often closer to the first. Crime effects overall reflected...
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