Forecasting the nearly unforecastable: why aren’t airline bookings adhering to the prediction algorithm?

Saravanan Thirumuruganathan, Soon-gyo Jung, Dianne Ramirez Robillos, Joni Salminen & Bernard J. Jansen
Using 27 million flight bookings for 2 years from a major international airline company, we built a Next Likely Destination model to ascertain customers’ next flight booking. The resulting model achieves an 89% predictive accuracy using historical data. A unique aspect of the model is the incorporation of self-competence, where the model defers when it cannot reasonably make a recommendation. We then compare the performance of the Next Likely Destination model in a real-life consumer...
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