The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou

Qu Cheng, Qinlong Jing, Robert C. Spear, John M. Marshall, Zhicong Yang & Peng Gong
Dengue is a fast spreading mosquito-borne disease that affects more than half of the population worldwide. An unprecedented outbreak happened in Guangzhou, China in 2014, which contributed 52 percent of all dengue cases that occurred in mainland China between 1990 and 2015. Our previous analysis, based on a deterministic model, concluded that the early timing of the first imported case that triggered local transmission and the excessive rainfall thereafter were the most important determinants of...
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