Accurate Modeling of Grazing Transits Using Umbrella Sampling

Gregory J. Gilbert
Grazing transits present a special problem for statistical studies of exoplanets. Even though grazing planetary orbits are rare (due to geometric selection effects), for many low to moderate signal-to-noise cases, a significant fraction of the posterior distribution is nonetheless consistent with a grazing geometry. A failure to accurately model grazing transits can therefore lead to biased inferences even for cases where the planet is not actually on a grazing trajectory. With recent advances in stellar...
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