Toward Optimal Fingerprinting in Detection and Attribution of Changes in Climate Extremes

Zhuo Wang, Yujing Jiang, Hui Wan, Jun Yan & Xuebin Zhang
Abstract–Detection and attribution of climate change plays a central role in establishing the causal relationship between the observed changes in the climate and their possible causes. Optimal fingerprinting has been widely used as a standard method for detection and attribution analysis for mean climate conditions, but there has been no satisfactory analog for climate extremes. Here, we turn an intuitive concept, which incorporates the expected climate responses to external forcings into the location parameters of...
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