Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index

Ricci Yue & Harry Lee
Abstract Background Although the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347â 1760) at both continental and country levels. Methods We apply Granger Causality Analysis...
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