Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment

Thomas McAndrew, Allison Codi, Juan Cambeiro, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey De Cèsaris & Damon Luk
Abstract Forecasts of the trajectory of an infectious agent can help guide public health decision making. A traditional approach to forecasting fits a computational model to structured data and generates a predictive distribution. However, human judgment has access to the same data as computational models plus experience, intuition, and subjective data. We propose a chimeric ensemble—a combination of computational and human judgment forecasts—as a novel approach to predicting the trajectory of an infectious agent. Each...
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