21 Works

Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson C. Mark
We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the HML gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity and inequality of economic performance across countries.

Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view. We utilize a recently proposed methodology to estimate the market’s expectations of the prices of ethanol, unfinished motor gasoline and crude oil...

Effects of freshwater salinization and biotic stressors on amphibian morphology

Jacquelyn Lewis, Jonathan Borrelli, Devin Jones & Rick Relyea
Organisms are commonly exposed to numerous stressors that induce behavioral, physiological, or morphological changes in some combination. In northern temperate latitudes, de-icing agents are a major stressor to species in freshwater ecosystems (primarily sodium chloride; NaCl). Species-specific responses to road salt toxicity range from lethal to sublethal effects, but it remains unclear how these effects interact with biotic stressors. Morphology can be quite sensitive to environmental changes, yet we know little about how it is...

Conditional Standard Error of Measurement: Classical Test Theory, Generalizability Theory and Many-Fact Rasch Measurement with Applications to Writing Assessment

Alan Huebner & Gustaf B. Skar
Writing assessments often consist of students responding to multiple prompts, which are judged by more than one rater. To establish the reliability of these assessments, there exist different methods to disentangle variation due to prompts and raters, including classical test theory, Many Facet Rasch Measurement (MFRM), and Generalizability Theory (G-Theory). Each of these methods defines a standard error of measurement (SEM), which is a quantity that summarizes the overall variability of student scores. However, less...

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset. Although this expectation in principle may be recovered by adjusting the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a common problem is that there are as many measures of the market expectation...

Key words related to public engagement with science by Society of Freshwater Science journals and conference sessions (1997-2019)

Ayesha S. Burdett, Katherine E. O’Reilly, Rebecca J. Bixby & Selena S. Connealy
Data set that was used to determine the frequency each of 4 key words (public engagement, education, outreach, or science communication) in the title or abstract of published papers in Freshwater Science (formerly the Journal of the North American Benthological Society) and oral presentations (talks) at the annual Society for Freshwater Science meetings from 1997 to 2019. Does not include any data on talks for 2013-2014 because they were not published during those years.

What does it mean to be wild? Assessing human influence on the environments of nonhuman primate specimens in museum collections

Andrea Eller, Stephanie Canington, Sana Saiyed, Rita Austin, Courtney Hofman & Sabrina Sholts
Natural history collections are often thought to represent environments in a pristine natural state, free from human intervention – the so-called “wild”. In this study, we aim to assess the level of human influence represented by natural history collections of wild-collected primates over 120 years at the Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History (NMNH). Our sample consisted of 875 catarrhine primate specimens in NMNH collections, representing 13 genera collected in 39 countries from 1882...

Indoor dust as a matrix for surveillance of COVID-19 outbreaks

Nicole Renninger, Nick Nastasi, Ashleigh Bope, Samuel Cochran, Sarah Haines, Neeraja Balasubrahmaniam, Katelyn Stuart, Aaron Bivins, Kyle Bibby, Natalie Hull & Karen Dannemiller
Ongoing disease surveillance is a critical tool to mitigate viral outbreaks, especially during a pandemic. Environmental monitoring has significant promise even following widespread vaccination among high-risk populations. The goal of this work is to demonstrate molecular SARS-CoV-2 monitoring in bulk floor dust and related samples as a proof-of-concept of a non-invasive environmental surveillance methodology for COVID-19 and potentially other viral diseases. Surface swab, passive sampler, and bulk floor dust samples were collected from rooms of...

Effects of climate on bill morphology within and across Toxostoma thrashers

Charlotte Probst, Joel Ralston & Ian Bentley
Bird bills possess an important thermoregulatory function as they are a site for environmental heat exchange. Previous studies have demonstrated that birds in warmer climates have larger bills than those living in colder climates, as larger bills can dissipate more heat. Because this dry heat transfer does not incur water loss, it may be additionally advantageous in water-restricted habitats. Here, we examine the influence of climate on bill morphology in Toxostoma thrashers, a group of...

Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?

Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou
The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect...

Social media and public perception as core aspect of public health: the cautionary case of @realdonaldtrump and COVID-19

Jeffrey Peterson & Agustin Fuentes
The social media milieu in which we are enmeshed has substantive impacts on our beliefs and perceptions. Recent work has established that this can play a role in influencing understanding of, and reactions to, public health information. Twitter, in particular, appears to play a substantive role in the public health information ecosystem. From July 25th, 2020 to November 15th, 2020, we collected weekly tweets related to COVID-19 keywords and assessed their networks, patterns and properties....

Data from: Divergent diapause life history timing drives both allochronic speciation and reticulate hybridization in an adaptive radiation of Rhagoletis flies

Meredith Doellman, Katherine Inskeep, Thomas Powell, Stewart Berlocher, Nicholas Seifert, Glen Hood, Gregory Ragland, Peter Meyers & Jeff Feder
Divergent adaptation to new ecological opportunities can be an important factor initiating speciation. However, as niches are filled during adaptive radiations, trait divergence driving reproductive isolation between sister taxa may also result in trait convergence with more distantly related taxa, increasing the potential for reticulated gene flow across the radiation. Here, we demonstrate such a scenario in a recent adaptive radiation of Rhagoletis fruit flies, specialized on different host plants. Throughout this radiation, shifts to...

Inversions and genomic differentiation after secondary contact: when drift contributes to maintenance, not loss, of differentiation

Marina Rafajlovic, Jordi Rambla, Jeffrey L. Feder, Arcadi Navarro & Rui Faria
Due to their effects on reducing recombination, chromosomal inversions may play an important role in speciation by establishing and/or maintaining linked blocks of genes causing reproductive isolation (RI) between populations. This view fits empirical data indicating that inversions typically harbour loci involved in RI. However, previous computer simulations of infinite populations with 2-4 loci involved in RI implied that, even with gene flux as low as 10^(-8) per gamete, per generation between alternative arrangements, inversions...

Beyond leaf habit: generalities in plant function across 97 tropical dry forest tree species

German Vargas G., Tim J. Brodribb, Juan M. Dupuy, Roy González‐M., Catherine M. Hulshof, David Medvigy, Tristan A. P. Allerton, Camila Pizano, Beatriz Salgado‐Negret, Naomi B. Schwartz, Skip J. Van Bloem, Bonnie G. Waring & Jennifer S. Powers
Leaf habit has been hypothesized to define a linkage between the slow-fast plant economic spectrum and the drought resistance-avoidance trade-off in tropical forests (‘slow-safe versus fast-risky’). However, variation in hydraulic traits as a function of leaf habit has rarely been explored for a large number of species. We sampled leaf and branch functional traits of 97 tropical dry forest tree species from four sites to investigate whether patterns of trait variation varied consistently in relation...

Aboveground net primary productivity in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forest: contributions of rainfall, forest age, and soil

Justin Becknell, German Vargas, Daniel Pérez‐Aviles, David Medvigy & Jennifer Powers
Identifying factors controlling forest productivity is critical to understanding forest-climate change feedbacks, modeling vegetation dynamics, and carbon finance schemes. However, little research has focused on productivity in regenerating tropical forest which are expanding in their fraction of global area have an order of magnitude larger carbon uptake rates relative to older forest. We examined aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components (wood production and litterfall) over ten years in forest plots that vary in...

Glucocorticoid exposure predicts survival in female baboons

Fernando Campos, Elizabeth Archie, Laurence Gesquiere, Jenny Tung, Jeanne Altmann & Susan Alberts
Are differences in HPA axis activation across the adult lifespan linked to differences in survival? This question has been the subject of considerable debate. We analyze the link between survival and fecal glucocorticoid (GC) measures in a wild primate population, leveraging an unusually extensive longitudinal dataset of 14,173 GC measurements from 242 adult female baboons over 1,634 female-years. We document a powerful link between GCs and survival: females with relatively high current GCs or high...

Testing the potential contribution of Wolbachia to speciation when cytoplasmic incompatibility becomes associated with host‐related reproductive isolation

Daniel Bruzzese, Hannes Schuler, Thomas Wolfe, Mary Glover, Joseph Mastroni, Meredith Doellman, Cheyenne Tait, Wee Yee, Juan Rull, Martin Aluja, Glen Hood, Robert Goughnour, Christian Stauffer, Patrik Nosil, Jeffery Feder, Daniel J. Bruzzese, Thomas M. Wolfe, Mary M. Glover, Meredith M. Doellman, Wee L. Yee, Glen R. Hood & Jeffery L. Feder
Endosymbiont induced cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) may play an important role in arthropod speciation. However, whether CI consistently becomes associated or coupled with other host-related forms of reproductive isolation (RI) to impede the transfer of endosymbionts between hybridizing populations and further the divergence process remains an open question. Here, we show varying degrees of pre- and post-mating RI exist among allopatric populations of two interbreeding cherry-infesting tephritid fruit flies (Rhagoletis cingulata and R. indifferens) across North...

Soil biogeochemistry across Central and South American tropical dry forests

Bonnie Waring, Mark De Guzman, Dan Du, Juan Dupuy, Maga Gei, Jessica Gutknecht, Catherine Hulshof, Nicolas Jelinski, Andrew Margenot, David Medvigy, Camila Pizano, Beatriz Salgado-Negret, Naomi Schwartz, Annette Trierweiler, Skip Van Bloem, German Vargas G & Jennifer Powers
The availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) controls the flow of carbon (C) among plants, soils, and the atmosphere, thereby shaping terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. Soil C, N, and P cycles are linked by drivers operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales: landscape-level variation in macroclimate, seasonality, and soil geochemistry; stand-scale heterogeneity in forest composition and structure; and microbial community dynamics at the soil pore scale. Yet in many biomes, we do...

Site-specific impacts of a major hurricane on alpha and beta diversity in tropical forest seedling communities

Samantha Worthy, Vanessa Rubio, Kirstin Staiger, Boris Ngouajio, Jie Yang & Nathan Swenson
Large scale disturbances are known to impact the alpha and beta diversity of communities. However, whether these disturbances increase or decrease diversity is often debated. The goal of this study was to quantify how the diversity of the seedling community was impacted within and across elevation in the El Yunque forest of Puerto Rico following a major hurricane. We tested two alternative hypotheses, that hurricanes are relatively more homogenizing or non-homogenizing forces, by quantifying changes...

A reversal in sensory processing accompanies ongoing ecological divergence and speciation in Rhagoletis pomonella

Cheyenne Tait, Hinal Kharva, Marco Schubert, Daniel Kritsch, Andy Sombke, Jürgen Rybak, Jeffrey Feder & Shannon Olsson
Changes in behavior often drive rapid adaptive evolution and speciation. However, the mechanistic basis for behavioral shifts is largely unknown. The tephritid fruit fly Rhagoletis pomonella is an example of ecological specialization and speciation in action via a recent host plant shift from hawthorn to apple. These flies primarily utilize specific odors to locate fruit, and because they mate only on or near host fruit, changes in odor preference for apples versus hawthorns translate directly...

Inhibitory control, exploration behaviour and manipulated ecological context are associated with foraging flexibility in the great tit

Jenny Coomes, Gabrielle Davidson, Michael Reichert, Ipek Kulahci, Camille Troisi & John Quinn
​​​​​Organisms are constantly under selection to respond effectively to diverse, sometimes rapid, changes in their environment, but not all individuals are equally plastic in their behaviour. Although cognitive processes and personality are expected to influence individual behavioural plasticity, the effects reported are highly inconsistent, which we hypothesise is because ecological context is usually not considered. We explored how one type of behavioural plasticity, foraging flexibility, was associated with inhibitory control (assayed using a detour-reaching task)...

Registration Year

  • 2021
    21

Resource Types

  • Dataset
    16
  • Text
    4
  • Journal Article
    1

Affiliations

  • University of Notre Dame
    21
  • University of Minnesota
    3
  • Bank of Canada
    3
  • Princeton University
    2
  • University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
    2
  • Wayne State University
    2
  • Virginia Commonwealth University
    2
  • Icesi University
    2
  • University of British Columbia
    2
  • Institute of Forest Ecology
    1