Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species available for future invasions, and it has been suggested that the problem of invasions will diminish as a result of this. However, the...

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the simplifying assumption that distance decay is isotropic. By synthesising and extending prior work, we show how geography of synchrony, a term which we use to refer to...

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis, is a native pest of pine trees that has recently expanded its range into the northeastern United States. Understanding its colonization, dispersal, and connectivity will be critical for mitigating negative economic and ecological impacts in the newly invaded areas. Characterization of spatial-genetic structure can contribute to this; however, previous studies have reached different conclusions about regional population genetic structure, with one study reporting a weak east-west pattern, and the...

1. Biological invasions are among the most serious threats to native forest ecosystems worldwide due to ever-increasing international trade and global change. Understanding the invasion processes and ecology of invasive pests in both newly invaded and native habitats is necessary to effectively manage the risks they pose. 2. The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is one of the most devastating invasive forest insect pests in North America and has also invaded European Russia and...

Despite the large body of theory concerning multiple disturbances, there have been relatively few attempts to test the theoretical assumptions of how and if disturbances interact. Of particular importance is whether disturbance events are linked, as this can influence the probability and intensity of ecological change. Disturbances are linked when one disturbance event increases or decreases the likelihood or extent of another. To this end, we used two long-term, multi-disturbance experiments in northern Wisconsin to...

The dataset contains a community-level composition matrix and associated species trait data. The .R file contains the complete analysis for the manuscript.

The fungus currently known as Laetiporus persicinus is a recognizable brown-rot decayer that is widespread on oak hosts in the southeastern United States. This species was first described as Polyporus persicinus in 1872 based on collections by Henry W. Ravenel from South Carolina. In this study, we elucidate the phylogenetic relationships of Laetiporus persicinus based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses of a four-locus data set (18S, 28S, rpb2, and tef1) from taxa within...

1. Studies of transient population dynamics have largely focused on temporal changes in dynamical behavior, such as the transition between periods of stability and instability. The present study explores a related dynamic pattern, namely transient synchrony during a 49-year period among populations of five sympatric species of forest insects that share host tree resources. The long time-series allows a more comprehensive exploration of transient synchrony patterns than most previous studies. Considerable variation existed in the...

Mushroom-forming fungi (Agaricomycetes) have the greatest morphological diversity and complexity of any group of fungi. They have radiated into most niches and fulfill diverse roles in the ecosystem, including wood decomposers, pathogens or mycorrhizal mutualists. Despite the importance of mushroom-forming fungi, large-scale patterns of their evolutionary history are poorly known, in part due to the lack of a comprehensive and dated molecular phylogeny. Here, using multigene and genome-based data, we assemble a 5,284-species phylogenetic tree...

In recent decades, a paradigm shift in forest management and associated policies has led to greater emphasis on harvest practices that retain mature, overstory trees in forest stands that would otherwise be clearcut. While it is often assumed that the maintenance of compositional and structural complexity, such as that achieved through retention forestry approaches, will also mitigate negative impacts to functional diversity, empirical evidence of this relationship is sparse. We examined the effects of an...

White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), has driven alarming declines in North American hibernating bats, such as little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus). During hibernation, infected little brown bats are able to initiate anti-Pd immune responses, indicating pathogen-mediated selection on the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes. However, such immune responses may not be protective as they interrupt torpor, elevate energy costs, and potentially lead to higher mortality rates. To assess whether...

Determining the flooding regime needed to support distinctive floodplain forests is essential for effective river conservation under the ubiquitous human alteration of river flows characteristic of the Anthropocene Era. At over 100 sites throughout the Connecticut River basin, the largest river system in New England, we characterized species composition, valley and channel morphology, and hydrologic regime to define conditions promoting distinct floodplain forest assemblages. Species assemblages were dominated by floodplain-associated trees on surfaces experiencing flood...

Winter habitat quality can influence breeding phenology and reproductive success of migratory birds. Using stable isotope ratios of carbon (δ13C) from bird claws and red blood cells collected in Massachusetts, USA, we assessed if winter habitat occupancy carried over to affect prairie warbler (Setophaga discolor) breeding arrival dates, body condition upon arrival, pairing success, first-egg dates, and reproductive success. In two of three years (in 2011 and 2012, but not in 2013), after-second-year (ASY) males...

1. Pine wilt disease (PWD) invaded southern Japan in the early 1900’s and has gradually expanded its range to northern Honshu (Japanese mainland). The disease is caused by a pathogenic North American nematode, which is transmitted by native pine sawyer beetles. Recently the disease has invaded other portions of East Asia and Europe where extensive mortality of host pines is anticipated to resemble historical patterns seen in Japan. 2. There is a critical need to...

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland’s Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering...

1. The net transport of nutrients by migratory fish from oceans to inland spawning areas has decreased due to population declines and migration barriers. Restoration of nutrients to increasingly oligotrophic upland streams (that were historically salmon spawning areas) have shown short-term benefits for juvenile salmon, but the longer-term consequences are little known. 2. Here we simulated the deposition of a small number of adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar carcasses at the end of the spawning...

AimMany tree species distribution models use black-box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximising predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species. LocationContinental United States and Canada MethodsWe develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilising variance and mapping dominant rules which we term ‘optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation...

The dataset contains a community-level composition matrix and associated species trait data. The .R file contains the complete analysis for the manuscript.

Eastern deciduous forests are changing in species composition and diversity outside of classical successional trajectories. Three disturbance mechanisms appear central to this phenomenon: fire frequency is reduced, canopy gaps are smaller, and browsers are more abundant. Which factor is most responsible is a matter of great debate and remains unclear, at least partly because few studies have simultaneously investigated more than one process. We conducted a large-scale experiment in mesophytic forests of West Virginia, USA,...

1. Maintenance metabolic rate (MR, the energy cost of self-maintenance) is linked to behavioural traits and fitness and varies substantially within populations. Despite having received much attention, the causes and consequences of this variation remain obscure. 2. Theoretically, such within-population variation in fitness-related traits can be maintained by environmental heterogeneity in selection patterns, but for MR this has rarely been tested in nature. 3. Here, we experimentally test if the relationship between MR and performance...

Timber harvest can adversely affect forest biota. Recent research and application suggest that retention of mature forest elements (‘retention forestry’), including unharvested patches (or ‘aggregates’) within larger harvested units, can benefit biodiversity compared to clearcutting. However, it is unclear whether these benefits can be generalized among the diverse taxa and biomes in which retention forestry is practiced. Lack of comparability in methods for sampling and analysing responses to timber harvest and edge creation presents a...

1. Context. Precipitation regimes are changing in response to climate change, yet understanding of how forest ecosystems respond to extreme droughts and pluvials remains incomplete. As future precipitation extremes will likely fall outside the range of historical variability, precipitation manipulation experiments (PMEs) are critical to advancing knowledge about potential ecosystem responses. However, few PMEs have been conducted in forests compared to short-statured ecosystems, and forest PMEs have unique design requirements and constraints. Moreover, past forest...

Explaining why fluctuations in abundances of spatially disjunct populations often are correlated through time is a major goal of population ecologists. We address two hypotheses receiving little to no testing in wild populations: a) that population cycling facilitates synchronization given weak coupling among populations, and b) that the ability of periodic external forces to synchronize oscillating populations is a function of the mismatch in timescales (detuning) between the force and the population. Here, we apply...

1. Ungulates place immense consumptive pressure on forest vegetation globally, leaving legacies of reduced biodiversity and simplified vegetative structure. However, what remains unresolved is whether browse-induced changes occurring early in succession ultimately manifest themselves in the developed forest canopy. Understanding the development and persistence of these legacies is critical as canopy structure is an important determinant of forest ecosystem functions like carbon sequestration and wildlife habitat. 2. We measured how white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) browse...

These data consist of a comprehensive list (as of 2020) of all known non-native Coleoptera (beetle) species established in 10 world regions: North America (excluding Mexico), Japan, the Okinawa and Ogasawara Islands, the Hawaiian Islands, South Korea, Europe (including the European part of Russia), New Zealand, Australia, and the Galapagos Islands. It does not include species that were known to have been intentionally introduced, species that failed to establish or species that only exist indoors...