3 Works

Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter

Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino
We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. The new method, denoted as Markov-switching three-pass regression filter (MS-3PRF), is suitable for datasets with large cross-sectional dimensions, since estimation and inference are straightforward, as opposed to existing regime-switching factor models where computational complexity limits applicability to few variables. In a Monte...

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting...

Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?

Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou
The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect...

Registration Year

  • 2021

Resource Types

  • Text


  • Centre for Economic Policy Research
  • Bank of Canada
  • University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
  • University of Notre Dame
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors
  • Bocconi University