1,300 Works

The Effect of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act on CEO Pay for Luck

Teodora Paligorova
According to the rent-extraction hypothesis, weak corporate governance allows entrenched CEOs to capture the pay-setting process and benefit from events outside of their control – get paid for luck. In this paper, I find that the independence requirement imposed on boards of directors by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX), together with the governance regulations subsequently introduced by stock exchanges, affects CEO pay structure. In firms whose corporate boards were originally less independent, and thus...

Are There Canada-U.S. Differences in SME Financing?

Danny Leung, Cesaire Meh & Yaz Terajima
Previous surveys of Canadian and U.S. business owners suggest that access to financing in Canada may be more problematic than in the United States. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Financing in the United States and the 2004 Survey on Financing of Small and Medium Enterprises in Canada, this paper examines whether this perception can be better quantified. Compared to U.S. SMEs, Canadian SMEs are found to have greater reliance on loans from individuals...

On the Amplification Role of Collateral Constraints

Caterina Mendicino
Following the seminal contribution of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), the role of collateral constraints for business cycle fluctuations has been highlighted by several authors and collateralized debt is becoming a popular feature of business cycle models. In contrast, Kocherlakota (2000) and Cordoba and Ripoll (2004) demonstrate that collateral constraints per se are unable to propagate and amplify exogenous shocks, unless unorthodox assumptions on preferences and production technologies are made. The aim of this paper is...

The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds

Andy Haldane & Mark Kruger
Over the past year and a half, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties to deal with a crisis and preserve the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules. It attempts to be clear about the respective roles and responsibilities of the public and private sectors. A central...

Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon & Chayawat Ornthanalai
We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely...

Canada's Exchange Rate Regime and North American Economic Integration: The Role of Risk-Sharing Mechanisms

Zahir Antia, Ramdane Djoudad & Pierre St-Amant
Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we survey the empirical literature on consumption smoothing mechanisms of regional economic shocks. Second, building on the work of Asdrubali et al. (1996), we present evidence on the role played by various smoothing mechanisms for specific economic shocks affecting Canadian provinces. Third, we assess whether smoothing mechanisms play a role at the North American level in facilitating the adjustment to shocks affecting Canada and the United States...

How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov & Wheaton Welbourn
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Using a Cobb-Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock,...

Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylized Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market

Toni Gravelle
The aims of this study are to examine how liquidity in the Government of Canada securities market has evolved over the 1990s and to determine what factors influence the level of liquidity in this market, with some comparisons to the U.S. Treasury securities market. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that an increase in effective supply of the securities enhances market liquidity. Empirical evidence also indicates that interest rate volatility tends to reduce market...

Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation

David Bolder
Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics. The author summarizes and synthesizes the theoretical and practical specifics relating to this analytically attractive class of models. This summary is accomplished in...

L'effet de la richesse sur la consommation aux États-Unis

Yanick Desnoyers
La forte augmentation de la richesse au cours de la deuxième moitié des années 1990 a généré l'équivalent d'un certain montant d'épargne et, du même coup, un glissement important du taux d'épargne des ménages. Dans la présente étude, l'auteur tente d'expliquer cette baisse importante du taux d'épargne observée depuis 1995. Pour ce faire, il utilise la méthodologie de King, Plosser, Stock et Watson (King et coll. 1991). Contrairement aux résultats obtenus par plusieurs autres études,...

Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes

Robert Amano, Donald Coletti & Tiff Macklem
This paper examines the implications of changes in economic behaviour for simple inflation-forecast–based monetary rules of the type currently used at two inflation-targeting central banks. Three types of changes in economic behaviour are considered, changes that are motivated by developments in monetary and fiscal policy in the 1990s: changes in monetary policy credibility, changes in the slope of the Phillips curve, and changes in the degree of income stabilization from automatic fiscal transfers. Analysis is...

Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives in a Non-Parametric Two-Factor Term-Structure Model

John Knight, Fuchun Li & Mingwei Yuan
Diffusion functions in term-structure models are measures of uncertainty about future price movements and are directly related to the risk associated with holding financial securities. Correct specification of diffusion functions is crucial in pricing options and other derivative securities. In contrast to the standard parametric two-factor models, we propose a non-parametric two-factor term-structure model that imposes no restrictions on the functional forms of the diffusion functions. Hence, this model allows for maximum flexibility when fitting...

Employment Effects of Restructuring in the Public Sector in North America

Paul Fenton, Irene Ip & Geoff Wright
This paper examines whether restructuring in the public sector contributed to the slower cyclical recovery in Canada than in the United States during the 1990s. Changes in public sector employment are used to investigate this question. The pressures that led up to the restructuring are explored and the resulting changes in employment are documented. A standardized definition of the public sector is proposed that allows for a consistent comparison of changes in employment in Canada...

Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account

Elif Arbatli
The intertemporal approach to the current account suggests modeling movements in the current account in a forward-looking, dynamic framework. In this framework, the current account reflects consumption smoothing of agents that lend and borrow from the rest of the world in the face of transitory shocks to income. As in permanent income models of consumption, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory shocks is predicted to be significantly smaller which implies that a permanent...

Price Competition and Concentration in Search and Negotiation Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

Jason Allen, Robert Clark & Jean-François Houde
This paper examines the impact of bank consolidation on mortgage rates in order to evaluate the extent to which mortgage markets are competitive. Mortgage markets are decentralized and so rates are determined through a search and negotiation process. The primary effect of a merger therefore is to reduce the number of partners available with whom to negotiate, although it can also change the characteristics of the product, and impact the search effort of consumers. Using...

Estimating the Demand for Settlement Balances in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System

Nellie Zhang
This paper applies a static model of an interest rate corridor to the Canadian data, and estimates the aggregate demand for central-bank settlement balances in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). The empirical specification controls for various calendar effects that have been shown to cause fluctuations in LVTS payment flows. The analysis takes into account the downward divergence of the overnight interest rate from the target rate, which has been persistent since 2005. The results...

Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Killian
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in...

Une analyse empirique du lien entre la productivité et le taux de change réel Canada-É-U

David Dupuis & David Tessier
L'écart relatif de productivité entre le Canada et les États-Unis est redevenu ces derniers temps un sujet controversé. Selon certains, une des causes de cet écart relatif serait la dépréciation graduelle qu'enregistre le taux de change depuis plus de 20 ans. Ainsi, la hausse du taux de change rendrait artificiellement les firmes canadiennes plus compétitives, ce qui tendait à diminuer les incitatifs de celles-ci à être plus productives. Notre objectif est d'étudier les liens empiriques...

International Business Cycles and Financial Frictions

Wen Yao
This paper builds a two-country DSGE model to study the quantitative impact of financial frictions on business cycle co-movements when investors have foreign asset exposure. The investor in each country holds capital in both countries and faces a leverage constraint on her debt. I show quantitatively that financial frictions along with foreign asset exposure give rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies the transmission of shocks between countries. The key mechanism is that a negative...

Changes in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Disaggregate Price Dynamics

Christiane Baumeister, Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz
We examine the evolution of the effects of monetary policy shocks on the distribution of disaggregate prices and quantities of personal consumption expenditures to assess the contribution of monetary policy to changes in U.S. inflation dynamics. Given that the transmission of monetary policy to aggregate inflation is determined by the responses of its underlying components, the degree of monetary non-neutrality is ultimately the result of relative price effects at the sectoral level. We provide evidence...

Does the Buck Stop Here? A Comparison of Withdrawals from Money Market Mutual Funds with Floating and Constant Share Prices

Jonathan Witmer
Recent reform proposals call for an elimination of the constant net asset value (NAV) or “buck” in money market mutual funds to reduce the occurrence of runs. Outside the United States, there are several countries that have money market mutual funds with and without constant NAVs. Using daily data on individual fund flows from these countries, this paper evaluates whether the reliance on a constant NAV is associated with a higher frequency of sustained fund...

Search-for-Yield in Canadian Fixed-Income Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy

Sermin Gungor & Jesus Sierra
This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the risk-taking behavior of fixed-income mutual funds in Canada. We consider different measures of the stance of monetary policy and investigate active variation in mutual funds’ risk exposure in response to monetary policy. We find evidence in support of a systematic link between monetary conditions and intertemporal variation in the risk-taking behavior of mutual funds. Specifically, following an expansionary monetary shift, funds actively increase default-risk exposure...

Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing

Serdar Kabaca
This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle. Labour share is more volatile in emerging markets and is procyclical, especially in countries facing countercyclical interest rates. In contrast, labour share in developed markets is more stable and slightly countercyclical. A...

Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households

Miguel Ampudia & Michael Ehrmann
This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households. We show that experienced stock market returns matter in a statistically significant and economically substantial fashion: better experiences increase the financial risk households are willing to take as well as stock market participation along...

Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing: Using the Least Squares Criterion for Quantile Estimation

Heng Chen
Estimation of the quantile model, especially with a large data set, can be computationally burdensome. This paper proposes using the Gaussian approximation, also known as quantile coupling, to estimate a quantile model. The intuition of quantile coupling is to divide the original observations into bins with an equal number of observations, and then compute order statistics within these bins. The quantile coupling allows one to apply the standard Gaussian-based estimation and inference to the transformed...

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