Species richness varies widely across the tree of life, and there is great interest in identifying ecological, geographic, and other factors that affect rates of species proliferation. Recent methods for explicitly modeling the relationships among character states, speciation rates, and extinction rates on phylogenetic trees- BiSSE, QuaSSE, GeoSSE, and related models - have been widely used to test hypotheses about character state-dependent diversification rates. Here, we document the disconcerting ease with which neutral traits are...

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate...

Ringed seals (Pusa hispida) are broadly distributed in seasonally ice covered seas, and their survival and reproductive success is intricately linked to sea ice and snow. Climatic warming is diminishing Arctic snow and sea ice and threatens to endanger ringed seals in the foreseeable future. We investigated the population structure and connectedness within and among three subspecies: Arctic (P. hispida hispida), Baltic (P. hispida botnica), and Lake Saimaa (P. hispida saimensis) ringed seals to assess...

Carnivoran-rich fossil sites are uncommon in the fossil record and, accordingly, provide valuable opportunities to study predators from vantages that are rarely applied to ancient faunas. Through stable isotopes of carbon and a Bayesian mixing model, we analyze time-successive (nearly contemporaneous), late Miocene carnivoran populations from two fossil sites (Batallones-1 and Batallones-3) from central Spain. Stable isotopes of carbon in tooth enamel provide a reliable and direct methodology to track ancient diets. These two carnivoran-dominated...

Two characters are stratigraphically compatible if some phylogenies indicate that their combinations (state-pairs) evolved without homoplasy and in an order consistent with the fossil record. Simulations assuming independent character change indicate that we expect approximately 95% of compatible character pairs to also be stratigraphically compatible over a wide range of sampling regimes and general evolutionary models. However, two general models of rate heterogeneity elevate expected stratigraphic incompatibility: “early burst” models, where rates of change are...

Geographic variation in trees has been investigated since the mid-18th century. Similar patterns of clinal variation have been observed along latitudinal and elevational gradients in common garden experiments for many temperate and boreal species. These studies convinced forest managers that a ‘local is best’ seed source policy was usually safest for reforestation. In recent decades, experimental design, phenotyping methods, climatic data and statistical analyses have improved greatly and refined but not radically changed knowledge of...

1.Hundreds of experiments have now manipulated species richness of various groups of organisms and examined how this aspect of biological diversity influences ecosystem functioning. Ecologists have recently expanded this field to look at whether phylogenetic diversity among species, often quantified as the sum of branch lengths on a molecular phylogeny leading to all species in a community, also predicts ecological function. Some have hypothesized that phylogenetic divergence should be a superior predictor of ecological function...

Rates of species diversification vary widely across the tree of life and there is considerable interest in identifying organismal traits that correlate with rates of speciation and extinction. However, it has been challenging to develop methodological frameworks for testing hypotheses about trait-dependent diversification that are robust to phylogenetic pseudoreplication and to directionally biased rates of character change. We describe a semi-parametric test for trait-dependent diversification that explicitly requires replicated associations between character states and diversification...

Background: The use of transcriptomic and genomic datasets for phylogenetic reconstruction has become increasingly common as researchers attempt to resolve recalcitrant nodes with increasing amounts of data. The large size and complexity of these datasets introduce significant phylogenetic noise and conflict into subsequent analyses. The sources of conflict may include hybridization, incomplete lineage sorting, or horizontal gene transfer, and may vary across the phylogeny. For phylogenetic analysis, this noise and conflict has been accommodated in...

The contribution of Pleistocene sea level changes to diversification patterns in archipelagos around the world, and specifically whether the repeated cycles of island connectivity and isolation acted as a ‘species pump’ is debated. The debate has been perpetuated in part because of the type of evidence used to evaluate the species-pump hypothesis. Specifically, existing tests of the ‘Pleistocene Aggregate Island Complex’ (PAIC) model of diversification interpret the lack of concordant divergence times among multiple codistributed...

Harnessing the power of genomic scans, we test the debated ‘species pump’ hypothesis that implicates repeated cycles of island connectivity and isolation as drivers of divergence. This question has gone understudied given the limited resolution of past molecular markers for studying such dynamic phenomena. With an average of 32000 SNPs from the genome of 136 individuals from ten populations of a Caribbean flightless ground cricket species (Amphiacusta sanctaecrucis) and a complementary set of statistical approaches,...

The tropics contain far greater numbers of species than temperate regions, suggesting that rates of species formation might differ systematically between tropical and non-tropical areas. We tested this hypothesis by reconstructing the history of speciation in New World (NW) land birds using BAMM, a Bayesian framework for modelling complex evolutionary dynamics on phylogenetic trees. We estimated marginal distributions of present-day speciation rates for each of 2571 species of birds. The present-day rate of speciation varies...

Reconstructing the phylogenetic relationships that unite all lineages (the tree of life) is a grand challenge. The paucity of homologous character data across disparately related lineages currently renders direct phylogenetic inference untenable. To reconstruct a comprehensive tree of life, we therefore synthesized published phylogenies, together with taxonomic classifications for taxa never incorporated into a phylogeny. We present a draft tree containing 2.3 million tips—the Open Tree of Life. Realization of this tree required the assembly...

Fitness costs are frequently invoked to explain the presence of genetic variation underlying plant defense across many types of damaging agents. Despite the expectation that costs of resistance are prevalent, however, they have been difficult to detect in nature. To examine the potential that resistance confers a fitness cost, we examined the survival and fitness of genetic lines of the common morning glory, Ipomoea purpurea, that diverged in the level of resistance to the herbicide...

Epidemiological dynamics are shaped by and may in turn shape host demography. These feedbacks can result in hard to predict patterns of disease incidence. Mathematical models that integrate infection and demography are consequently a key tool for informing expectations for disease burden and identifying effective measures for control. A major challenge is capturing the details of infection within individuals and quantifying their downstream impacts to understand population-scale outcomes. For example, parasite loads and antibody titres...

Many animals have ornaments that mediate choice and competition in social and sexual contexts. Individuals with elaborate sexual ornaments typically have higher fitness than those with less elaborate ornaments, but less is known about whether socially selected ornaments are associated with fitness. Here, we test the relationship between fitness and facial patterns that are a socially-selected signal of fighting ability in Polistes dominula wasps. We found wasps that signal higher fighting ability have larger nests,...

The use of co-occurrence patterns to investigate interactions between micro-organisms has provided novel insight into organismal interactions within microbial communities. However, anthropogenic impacts on microbial co-occurrence patterns and ecosystem function remain an important gap in our ecological knowledge. In a northern hardwood forest ecosystem located in Michigan, USA, 20 years of experimentally increased atmospheric N deposition has reduced forest floor decay and increased soil C storage. This ecosystem-level response occurred concomitantly with compositional changes in...

Most extant species are in clades with poor fossil records, and recent studies of comparative methods show have low power to infer even highly simplified models of trait evolution without fossil data. Birds are a well-studied radiation, yet their early evolutionary patterns are still contentious. The fossil record suggests that birds underwent a rapid ecological radiation after the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, and several smaller, subsequent radiations. This hypothesized series of repeated radiations from fossil data...

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be...

Background: Sexual dichromatism is the tendency for sexes to differ in color pattern and represents a striking form of within-species morphological variation. Conspicuous intersexual differences in avian plumage are generally thought to result from Darwinian sexual selection, to the extent that dichromatism is often treated as a surrogate for the intensity of sexual selection in phylogenetic comparative studies. Intense sexual selection is predicted to leave a footprint on genetic evolution by reducing the relative genetic...

The statistical estimation of phylogenies is always associated with uncertainty, and accommodating this uncertainty is an important component of modern phylogenetic comparative analysis. The birth-death polytomy resolver is a method of accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty that places missing (unsampled) taxa onto phylogenetic trees, using taxonomic information alone. Recent studies of birds and mammals have used this approach to generate pseudo-posterior distributions of phylogenetic trees that are complete at the species level, even in the absence...

Priority effects are an important ecological force shaping biotic communities and ecosystem processes, in which the establishment of early colonists alters the colonization success of later-arriving organisms via competitive exclusion and habitat modification. However, we do not understand which biotic and abiotic conditions lead to strong priority effects and lasting historical contingencies. Using saprotrophic fungi in a model leaf decomposition system, we investigated whether compositional and functional consequences of initial colonization were dependent on initial...

Moorea producens JHB, a Jamaican strain of tropical filamentous marine cyanobacteria, has been extensively studied by traditional natural products techniques. These previous bioassay and structure guided isolations led to the discovery of two exciting classes of natural products, hectochlorin (1) and jamaicamides A (2) and B (3). In the current study, mass spectrometry-based ‘molecular networking’ was used to visualize the metabolome of Moorea producens JHB, and both guided and enhanced the isolation workflow, revealing additional...

Species richness varies widely across extant clades, but the causes of this variation remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of diversification rate heterogeneity in shaping patterns of diversity across families of extant bats. To provide a robust framework for macroevolutionary inference, we assemble a time-calibrated, species-level phylogeny using a supermatrix of mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data. We analyze the phylogeny using a Bayesian method for modeling complex evolutionary dynamics. Surprisingly, we find that variation...

Objective: People with chronic liver disease, particularly those with decompensated cirrhosis, experience several potentially debilitating complications that can have a significant impact on activities of daily living and quality of life. These impairments combined with the associated complex treatment mean that they are faced with specific and high levels of supportive care needs. We aimed to review reported perspectives, experiences and concerns of people with chronic liver disease worldwide. This information is necessary to guide...