8 Works

The Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Post-Crisis World

Mark Kruger, Robert Lavigne & Julie McKay
The International Monetary Fund (IMF, or the Fund) has undergone a number of significant policy changes and reforms in the wake of the global financial crisis. Most notably, in December 2015, the United States approved long-delayed legislation to increase the representation of developing countries in the Fund’s governance structure. The vital progress on quota shares has finally allowed for a resumption of wider and increasingly critical discussion of the strategic role of the IMF in...

Financial Inclusion—What’s it Worth?

Michael Ampudia & Michael Ehrmann
The paper studies the determinants of being unbanked in the euro area and the United States as well as the effects of being unbanked on wealth accumulation. Based on household-level data from The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, it first documents that there are, respectively, 3.6 per cent and 7.5 per cent of unbanked households in the two economies. Low-income households, unemployed households and those with a...

Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models

Claudia Godbout & Marco J. Lombardi
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis. To do so, we construct factor models to forecast Japanese GDP and its subcomponents, using 38 data series (including daily, monthly and quarterly variables) over the...

Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

Thibaut Duprey, Benjamin Klaus & Tuomas Peltonen
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Based on a Markov-switching model, high financial stress regimes are identified, and a simple algorithm is used to select those episodes of financial stress that are associated with a substantial negative impact on the real economy. By applying this framework to 27 European Union...

How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. Whereas the in-sample analysis suggests that these indicators can provide an early warning signal up to several quarters prior to the respective regime change, the...

The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey

Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber & isabelle salle
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis had a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and hence, spending. The elongated and profound experience of the COVID-19 crisis may durably affect consumer preferences. We conducted a representative consumer survey in five European countries in summer 2020 after the release of the first wave’s lockdown...

Import Price Dynamics in Major Advanced Economies and Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Stephane Dees, Matthias Burgert & Nicolas Parent
This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991–2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degrees of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from emerging...

Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Bruno Albuquerque & Georgi Krustev
Using a novel dataset for the US states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of US consumption since 2007, in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond income and wealth effects. The overall impact, however, is modest, around one-sixth of...

Registration Year

  • 2021
    8

Resource Types

  • Text
    8

Affiliations

  • European Central Bank
    8
  • Bank of Canada
    7
  • Goethe University Frankfurt
    1
  • University of Amsterdam
    1
  • Banco de Portugal
    1