13 Works

Works and Days as a Transittional Text

Ruth Scodel

Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth: Toward a Theory for How the Tragedy of the Anticommons Emerges in Organizations

Matthew McCarter, Shirli Kopelman, Thomas Turk & Candace Ybarra

Tuiteamos o pongamos un tuit? Investigating the Social Constraints of Loanword Integration in Spanish Social Media

Ian Stewart, Diyi Yang & Jacob Eisenstein

Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian
We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques to fill gaps in the real-time data. We show that real-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up...

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting...

Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Killian
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in...

Fugitives from Slavery in Jamaica, 1718-1795: Lessons from Datasets and Newspaper Advertisements

Anthony W. Wood & Billy G. Smith

Tit for Tat and Beyond: The Legendary Work of Anatol Rapoport

Shirli Kopelman

Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view. We utilize a recently proposed methodology to estimate the market’s expectations of the prices of ethanol, unfinished motor gasoline and crude oil...

Alternative Trading Systems: Does One Shoe Fit All?

Nicolas Audet, Toni Gravelle & Jing Yang
This paper examines the factors that lead liquidity-motivated investors to choose the type of market structure they prefer. We assume that investors can choose between a dealership and a limit-order-book market. This study builds a theoretical model for both the dealership and order-book markets and develops a numerical method to solve the Nash equiibrium strategies of heterogeneous market participants. We find that a dealership market would be preferred by investors in an environment where customer...

A Data-driven Approach to Crosslinguistic Structural Biases

Alex Kramer & Zoey Liu

Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?

Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou
The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect...

Registration Year

  • 2021

Resource Types

  • Text


  • University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
  • Bank of Canada
  • University of Notre Dame
  • Centre for Economic Policy Research
  • Google (United States)
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors
  • The University of Texas at San Antonio
  • Georgia Institute of Technology
  • Boston College
  • Montana State University