3 Works

Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies

Juncal Cunado, Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. The main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their type. In addition, a...

Neuroprevention: Developing Legal Policies in Risk Assessment Without Aspiring to Predict Crime

Aura Itzel Ruiz Guarneros & José M. Muñoz
What should be the ultimate purpose of punishment in criminal law? Is it possible to apply measures that do not only pursue a simple retributive punishment but, at the same time, can help to: (a) reduce the risk of recidivism by serving as complementary measures to the penalty and (b) reduce incarceration rates without endangering public safety? Our proposal is to conceptualize the risk assessment of recidivism, and of criminal acts in general, from what...

Can the Common-Factor Hypothesis Explain the Observed Housing Wealth Effect?

Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte & Carles Vergara-Alert
The common-factor hypothesis is one possible explanation for the housing wealth effect. Under this hypothesis, house price appreciation is related to changes in consumption as long as the available proxies for the common driver of housing and non-housing demand are noisy and housing supply is not perfectly elastic. We simulate a model in which a common factor drives the relation between house prices and consumption to examine the extent to which the common-factor hypothesis can...

Registration Year

  • 2021
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Affiliations

  • University of Navarra
    3
  • Bank of Canada
    2
  • Rice University
    1