1,420 Works

Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy

Erik Ens, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Kurt See & Shu Lin Wee

Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory

Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales
"Since the Great Recession, large-scale purchases of long-term government bonds have become essential for central banks around the world. There has been keen interest in understanding how these operations affect other areas. This is particularly true when countries are under fiscal pressure—from deepening deficits and surging government debt—and when short-term interest rates are near the effective lower bound. We examine how changes to monetary and fiscal policy influence government portfolio risk from debt maturity operations....

The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada

Christian Friedrich & Chen David
"The 2007–08 global financial crisis led to Basel III, a set of new regulatory measures to strengthen the resilience of the global banking system. Among these measures is the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), a policy tool that links the tightness of capital requirements imposed on banks to the current state of the economy and the financial system. From its introduction in 2013 until 2019, the CCyB faced a gradual tightening in various countries to slow...

Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds?

Rohan Arora
Mutual funds employ a host of tools to manage redemption run risk. However, our results suggest that Canadian corporate bond funds may be vulnerable to redemption runs, especially when they are less liquid and when market volatility is high.

Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park
This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. While population aging will continue to be a drag on potential output growth, this drag is expected to be offset by a pickup in trend labour productivity. This...

What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth? Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 (English)

Dany Brouillette, Jose Dorich, Christopher D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon & Claudia Godbout
This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses. In addition to this evidence from the demand side, industry analysis points to supply constraints that are limiting export growth, such as physical capacity and shortages of skilled labour. Transportation bottlenecks,...

How do Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds Meet Investor Redemptions?

Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc & Rohan Arora
When investors redeem their fund shares for cash, fixed-income fund managers can choose whether to draw on their liquid holdings or sell bonds in the secondary market. We analyze the liquidity-management decisions of Canadian corporate bond mutual funds, focusing on the strategies they use to meet investor redemptions.

Measuring Vulnerabilities in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Using Industry- and Firm-Level Data

Timothy Grieder & Michal Lipsitz
Aggregate non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has been growing rapidly in recent years and is at an all-time high. This growth began in 2011 and accelerated as the oil price shock affected the Canadian economy. In light of these developments, we use industry- and firm-level data to measure vulnerability indicators in the non-financial corporate sector. We find that developments in the oil and mining sectors have had a noticeable impact on aggregate non-financial corporate indebtedness and other...

Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

Jose Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk & Jonathan Swarbrick
We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data. We then compare the predictions of the simulations with observed outcomes to shed light on the source of weakness in non-commodity exports. Our results suggest that demand factors, such as competitiveness challenges, likely play a dominant role in explaining the recent weakness in non-commodity...

Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy

David Andolfatto, Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran
Various measures indicate that inflation expectations evolve sluggishly relative to actual inflation. In addition, they often fail conventional tests of unbiasedness. These observations are sometimes interpreted as evidence against rational expectations. The authors embed, within a standard monetary dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model, an information friction and a learning mechanism regarding the interest-rate-targeting rule that monetary policy authorities follow. The learning mechanism enables optimizing economic agents to distinguish between transitory shocks to the policy rule and...

Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty

Gino Cateau
How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy? The author discusses some recent approaches that can be used for that purpose under two alternative scenarios: (i) the policy-maker has one reference model for choosing policy but cannot take a stand as to how that model is misspecified, and (ii) the policy-maker, being uncertain about the economy's true structure, entertains multiple distinct models of the economy....

Quelques résultats empiriques relatifs à l'évolution du taux de change Canada/États-Unis

Ramdane Djoudad & David Tessier
L'objectif des auteurs est ici de voir dans quelle mesure des facteurs autres que les prix des produits de base et de l'énergie ont contribué à la dépréciation du dollar canadien depuis le début des années 1970. Les variables prises en compte à cette fin incluent entre autres les conditions budgétaires et la productivité. La méthode utilisée consiste à déterminer les variables susceptibles de jouer un rôle important, à long terme, dans l'évolution du taux...

Institutional Quality, Trade, and the Changing Distribution of World Income

Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis
Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world. However, recent research (e.g., Rigobon and Rodrik 2004) suggests that the Frankel and Romer (1999) trade and growth finding is not robust to the inclusion of institutional quality. In this paper, the authors argue that this "trade and growth puzzle" can be explained once institutional quality is acknowledged as a determinant of the...

Information Sharing and Bargaining in Buyer-Seller Networks

Sofia Priazhkina & Frank H. Page
This paper presents a model of strategic buyer-seller networks with information exchange between sellers. Prior to engaging in bargaining with buyers, sellers can share access to buyers for a negotiated transfer. We study how this information exchange affects overall market prices, volumes and welfare, given different initial market conditions and information sharing rules. In markets with homogeneous traders, sharing always increases total trade volume. The market reaches Walrasian trade volume when there are more buyers...

Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence

Céline Gauthier & David Tessier
In this paper, we study the impact of supply shocks on the Canadian real exchange rate. We specify a structural vector-error-correction model that links the real exchange rate to different fundamentals. The identification scheme we use to recover the different shocks is based on long-run restrictions and allows us to decompose the real exchange rate according to different long-run trends, basically defined in terms of permanent shocks. Two main results emerge from our analysis. First,...

Alternative Trading Systems: Does One Shoe Fit All?

Nicolas Audet, Toni Gravelle & Jing Yang
This paper examines the factors that lead liquidity-motivated investors to choose the type of market structure they prefer. We assume that investors can choose between a dealership and a limit-order-book market. This study builds a theoretical model for both the dealership and order-book markets and develops a numerical method to solve the Nash equiibrium strategies of heterogeneous market participants. We find that a dealership market would be preferred by investors in an environment where customer...

The International Monetary Fund's Balance-Sheet and Credit Risk

Ryan Felushko & Eric Santor
The authors examine the characteristics of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending from the 1960s to 2005. They find that there has been an increase in portfolio concentration, that lending terms have effectively lengthened, and that the proportion of total lending that occurs due to exceptional access has risen dramatically. Moreover, the typical IMF borrower represents a greater risk burden than in previous periods. The authors estimate a model of expected credit loss for the IMF's...

Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

René Garcia & Maral Kichian
The observed predictability of excess returns in equity and foreign exchange markets has largely been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premiums in these markets. For example, excess equity returns were found to be explained by various financial and economic variables. Similarly, in the foreign exchange market, the forward rate was found not to be an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, and excess foreign exchange returns were shown to be partially explained...

Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty

James Yetman
The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Monetary authorities have put significant emphasis in recent years on...

Some Explorations, Using Canadian Data, of the S-Variable in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (1996)

Seamus Hogan & Lise Pichette
A number of authors have suggested that economies face a long-run inflation-unemployment trade-off due to downward nominal-wage rigidity. This theory has implications for the nature of the short-run Phillips curve when wage inflation is low. Akerlof, Dickens and Perry have developed an empirical model in which a variable (S) designed to capture the effect of downward nominal-wage rigidity is constructed as part of the estimation of the short-run Phillips curve. Adding this variable dramatically improves...

Credit in a Tiered Payments System

Alexandra Lai, Nikil C hande & Sean O'Connor
Payments systems are typically characterized by some degree of tiering, with upstream firms (clearing agents) providing settlement accounts to downstream institutions that wish to clear and settle payments indirectly in these systems (indirect clearers). Clearing agents provide their indirect clearers with an essential input (clearing and settlement services), while also competing directly with them in the retail market for payment services. The authors construct a model of a clearing agent with an indirect clearer to...

Fractional Cointegration and the Demand for M1

Greg Tkacz
Using wavelets, the author estimates the fractional order of integration of a common long-run money-demand relationship whose parameters are obtained from a full-information maximum-likelihood procedure. Because the order of integration is found to be significantly higher than zero, a grid-search procedure is used over the local parameter space to isolate the parameters required to lower the fractional order of integration. When Canadian data from 1968–99 are examined, a 25 per cent reduction in the interest...

Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Non-Technical Survey

Veronika Dolar & Cesaire Meh
There is a large body of literature that studies the relationship between financial structure (that is, the degree to which the financial system is either market- or intermediary-based) and long-run economic growth. This paper gives a non-technical survey of that literature designed for a general audience. The literature suggests that financial structure does not explain differential growth rates across countries. What matters for growth is the overall level and quality of financial services. Therefore, the...

The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States

Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin
This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. The literature generally dismisses the relevance of these indexes. Without formal modelling, however, some researchers (Garner 1991 and Throop 1992) suggest that the indexes could be helpful during periods of major economic or political shocks. Such periods are usually associated with high volatility of consumer confidence, suggesting that large swings in confidence could be useful indicators of...

Bank Screening Heterogeneity

Thibaut Duprey
Production efficiency and financial stability do not necessarily go hand in hand. With heterogeneity in banks’ abilities to screen borrowers, the market for loans becomes segmented and a self-competition mechanism arises. When heterogeneity increases, the intensive and extensive margins have opposite effects. Bank informational rents unambiguously decrease welfare and distort effort incentives. But the bank most efficient at screening expands its market share by competing against itself to offer effort-inducing contracts, which decreases the share...

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