1,300 Works

Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence

Céline Gauthier & David Tessier
In this paper, we study the impact of supply shocks on the Canadian real exchange rate. We specify a structural vector-error-correction model that links the real exchange rate to different fundamentals. The identification scheme we use to recover the different shocks is based on long-run restrictions and allows us to decompose the real exchange rate according to different long-run trends, basically defined in terms of permanent shocks. Two main results emerge from our analysis. First,...

Alternative Trading Systems: Does One Shoe Fit All?

Nicolas Audet, Toni Gravelle & Jing Yang
This paper examines the factors that lead liquidity-motivated investors to choose the type of market structure they prefer. We assume that investors can choose between a dealership and a limit-order-book market. This study builds a theoretical model for both the dealership and order-book markets and develops a numerical method to solve the Nash equiibrium strategies of heterogeneous market participants. We find that a dealership market would be preferred by investors in an environment where customer...

The International Monetary Fund's Balance-Sheet and Credit Risk

Ryan Felushko & Eric Santor
The authors examine the characteristics of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending from the 1960s to 2005. They find that there has been an increase in portfolio concentration, that lending terms have effectively lengthened, and that the proportion of total lending that occurs due to exceptional access has risen dramatically. Moreover, the typical IMF borrower represents a greater risk burden than in previous periods. The authors estimate a model of expected credit loss for the IMF's...

Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

René Garcia & Maral Kichian
The observed predictability of excess returns in equity and foreign exchange markets has largely been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premiums in these markets. For example, excess equity returns were found to be explained by various financial and economic variables. Similarly, in the foreign exchange market, the forward rate was found not to be an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, and excess foreign exchange returns were shown to be partially explained...

Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty

James Yetman
The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Monetary authorities have put significant emphasis in recent years on...

Some Explorations, Using Canadian Data, of the S-Variable in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (1996)

Seamus Hogan & Lise Pichette
A number of authors have suggested that economies face a long-run inflation-unemployment trade-off due to downward nominal-wage rigidity. This theory has implications for the nature of the short-run Phillips curve when wage inflation is low. Akerlof, Dickens and Perry have developed an empirical model in which a variable (S) designed to capture the effect of downward nominal-wage rigidity is constructed as part of the estimation of the short-run Phillips curve. Adding this variable dramatically improves...

Credit in a Tiered Payments System

Alexandra Lai, Nikil C hande & Sean O'Connor
Payments systems are typically characterized by some degree of tiering, with upstream firms (clearing agents) providing settlement accounts to downstream institutions that wish to clear and settle payments indirectly in these systems (indirect clearers). Clearing agents provide their indirect clearers with an essential input (clearing and settlement services), while also competing directly with them in the retail market for payment services. The authors construct a model of a clearing agent with an indirect clearer to...

Fractional Cointegration and the Demand for M1

Greg Tkacz
Using wavelets, the author estimates the fractional order of integration of a common long-run money-demand relationship whose parameters are obtained from a full-information maximum-likelihood procedure. Because the order of integration is found to be significantly higher than zero, a grid-search procedure is used over the local parameter space to isolate the parameters required to lower the fractional order of integration. When Canadian data from 1968–99 are examined, a 25 per cent reduction in the interest...

Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Non-Technical Survey

Veronika Dolar & Cesaire Meh
There is a large body of literature that studies the relationship between financial structure (that is, the degree to which the financial system is either market- or intermediary-based) and long-run economic growth. This paper gives a non-technical survey of that literature designed for a general audience. The literature suggests that financial structure does not explain differential growth rates across countries. What matters for growth is the overall level and quality of financial services. Therefore, the...

The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States

Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin
This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. The literature generally dismisses the relevance of these indexes. Without formal modelling, however, some researchers (Garner 1991 and Throop 1992) suggest that the indexes could be helpful during periods of major economic or political shocks. Such periods are usually associated with high volatility of consumer confidence, suggesting that large swings in confidence could be useful indicators of...

Bank Screening Heterogeneity

Thibaut Duprey
Production efficiency and financial stability do not necessarily go hand in hand. With heterogeneity in banks’ abilities to screen borrowers, the market for loans becomes segmented and a self-competition mechanism arises. When heterogeneity increases, the intensive and extensive margins have opposite effects. Bank informational rents unambiguously decrease welfare and distort effort incentives. But the bank most efficient at screening expands its market share by competing against itself to offer effort-inducing contracts, which decreases the share...

Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom

Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu
Mankiw and Reis (2001a) have proposed a "sticky-information"-based Phillips curve (SIPC) to address some of the concerns with the "sticky-price"-based new Keynesian Phillips curve. In this paper, we present a methodology for the empirical implementation of the SIPC for closed and open economies. We estimate its key structural parameter—the average duration of information stickiness—for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The benchmark results (with forecasting horizons of firms of seven to eight quarters)...

Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data

Kevin Moran & Veronika Dolar
This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series. It presents the first Canadian evidence that a hybrid DGE-VAR model may have better out-of-sample forecasting accuracy than a simple, structure-free VAR model. The evidence suggests that estimated DGE models have the potential to add good forecasting ability to their natural strength of adding structure to an economic model.

Entrepreneurship, Inequality, and Taxation

Cesaire Meh
This paper confirms the conjecture that the evaluation of tax policy leads to very different conclusions once the role of entrepreneurs is considered. Contrary to previous literature, the author finds that switching from a progressive to a proportional income tax system has a negligible effect on wealth inequality in the United States. This surprising result arises because entrepreneurial activities moderate the effects of the policy change on the wealth distribution. The author shows that proportional...

The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies

Gregory Bauer, Gurnain Pasricha, Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima
This paper analyzes the implications of the global financial cycle for conventional and unconventional monetary policies and macroprudential policy in small, open economies such as Canada. The paper starts by summarizing recent work on financial cycles and their growing correlation across borders. The resulting global financial cycle may be followed by a financial crisis that is quite costly. The cycle causes time variation in global risk premia in fixed income, equity and foreign exchange markets....

Gaining Credibility for Inflation Targets

James Yetman
In this paper, I consider a simple model in which agents learn about the inflation target of a central bank over time by observing the policy instrument or inflation outcomes. Measuring credibility as the distance between the perceived target and the actual target, an increase in credibility is beneficial to the central bank because it brings the policy consistent with attaining the inflation target closer to that required to attain the output target. In this...

The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10

Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson & Tom Roberts
This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Policies targeting the loan-to-value ratio are found to have a larger impact than policies targeting the debt-service ratio, such as amortization. This is because there are more wealth-constrained borrowers than income-constrained borrowers entering the housing market.

Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods

Fuchun Li & Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to compare the performance of the different weighting schemes. The simulation results show that the non-linear combination methods are superior in all scenarios considered. When forecast errors are correlated across models, the nonparametric weighting scheme yields the lowest mean-squared errors. When...

Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model

Ying Liu
This paper uses a smooth transition error-correction model (STECM) to model the one-year and five-year mortgage rate changes. The model allows for a non-linear adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibrium. We also introduce time-varying thresholds into the standard STECM specification, to capture the gradual structural changes in the error-correction term. We find that the STECM, whether with fixed or time-varying thresholds, yields better in-sample fit and lower forecast errors than the linear...

Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? Some New Evidence from Structural Estimation

Wei Dong
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium two-sector model with sticky prices and wages and limited exchange rate pass-through. Different specifications for the monetary policy rule and the real exchange rate process are examined. The results indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the Bank...

On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting

Kevin Clinton
Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena. It uses standard empirical models, and an investigation of the different approaches to inflation targeting in the three countries—including a case study of the 1998 international financial crisis—to assess how well a floating currency serves a resource-rich economy, and...

Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China

Denise Côté & Carlos De Resende
In this paper, we develop a theoretical model which identifies four channels–import prices, competition with domestic suppliers and workers, and commodity prices–through which price- and wage-setting conditions in country j may affect inflation in country i. We estimate a dynamic inflation equation derived from the theoretical model using a quarterly dataset of eighteen OECD countries over the 1984-2006 period. Although our methodology can be applied to any pair of countries, we focus on the effect...

The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance

Carlos De Resende & Nooman Rebel
This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy in a DSGE model with sticky prices and non-zero trend inflation. We characterize the fiscal and monetary policies by a rule whereby a given fraction k of the government debt must be backed by the discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining fraction of debt is backed by seigniorage revenues. When k = 1, there is no fiscal dominance, since the fiscal...

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data

Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna & Natalia Kyui
We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID). MWS data cover large unionized firms in Canada, while SLID is a rich rotating panel representative of the employed population in Canada. Combining both sources of information allows for a more extensive...

Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing

Miroslav Misina & David Tessier
A distinguishing feature of macro stress testing exercises is the use of macroeconomic models in scenario design and implementation. It is widely agreed that scenarios should be based on "rare but plausible" events that have either resulted in vulnerabilities in the past or could do so in the future. This requirement, however, raises a number of difficult statistical and methodological problems. Economic models, as well as the statistical models of the relationships among economic variables,...

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  • Bank of Canada
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