1,300 Works

Inflation and Unemployment in Competitive Search Equilibrium

Mei Dong
Using a monetary search model, Rocheteau, Rupert and Wright (2007) show that the relationship between inflation and unemployment can be positive or negative depending on the primitives of the model. The key features are indivisible labor, nonseparable preferences and bargaining. Their results are derived only for a special case of the bargaining solution, take-it-or-leave-it offer by buyers. Instead of bargaining, this paper considers competitive search (price posting with directed search). I show that the results...

Consumption, Housing Collateral, and the Canadian Business Cycle

Ian Christensen, Paul Corrigan, Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the Canadian business cycle. Our findings show that the presence of borrowing constraints improves the performance of the model in terms of overall goodness of fit. In particular, the presence of housing collateral generates a...

A Framework for Analyzing Monetary Policy in an Economy with E-money

YU ZHU & Scott Hendry
This paper considers an economy where central-bank-issued fiat money competes with privately issued e-money. We study a policy-setting game between the central bank and the e-money issuer and find (1) the optimal monetary policy of the central bank depends on the policy of the private issuer and may deviate from the Friedman rule; (2) multiple equilibria may exist; (3) when the economy approaches a cashless state, the central bank’s optimal policy improves the market power...

A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada

Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu
The authors develop a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model in an attempt to understand the dynamic relationships in Canadian macroeconomic data. The model differs from most recent DSGE models in two key ways. First, for prices and wages, the authors use the time-dependent staggered contracting model of Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999) and Wolman (1999), rather than the Calvo (1983) specification. Second, to model investment, the authors adopt Edge's (2000a, b) framework of...

Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes

Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller
This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics." Its key features are that "overvaluation" increases the probability and expected size of a crash. Using U.S. data for 1926-89, we find considerable support for this model's predictions. The second explanation is based on switches in fundamentals....

Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach

Iris Claus
Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level. A possible explanation for this accumulation is that the costs of adjusting inventory holdings outweigh the disequilibrium costs, i.e., the cost of...

L'endettement du Canada et ses effets sur les taux d'intérêt réels de long terme

Jean-François Fillion
This paper examines the effects that Canada's indebtedness has on Canadian real long-term interest rates, using the vector error-correction model (VECM). Our results show that there is a strongly cointegrated relationship between real interest rates in Canada, U.S. real interest rates, and Canadian public and external debt ratios. Within that relationship, however, the problem of collinearity between the two debt variables makes it difficult to identify the precise effects on Canadian real interest rates. To...

Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles?

Simon van Norden & Robert Vigfusson
Work on testing for bubbles has caused much debate, much of which has focussed on methodology. Monte Carlo simulations reported in Evans (1991) showed that standard tests for unit roots and cointegration frequently reject the presence of bubbles even when such bubbles are present by construction. Evans referred to this problem as the pitfall of testing for bubbles. Since Evans' note, new tests for rational speculative bubbles that rely on regime-switching have been proposed. Van...

Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence

Patrick Osakwe
A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food aid is used to finance infrastructure development and consumers are required to participate in public projects in order to receive...

Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

Xing Guo
This paper identifies the aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 1.1% of the variation in U.S. public firms' aggregate investment. The negligible aggregate relevance of financial shocks mainly results from the interaction between firm-level heterogeneity and general equilibrium effects. Following a contractionary financial shock, financially constrained firms are directly forced to cut investment, which dampens the...

Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery

Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl
We study the trading dynamics in an asset market where the quality of assets is private information of the owner and finding a counterparty takes time. When trading of a financial asset ceases in equilibrium as a response to an adverse shock to asset quality, a large player can resurrect the market by buying up lemons which involves assuming financial losses. The equilibrium response to such a policy is intricate as it creates an announcement...

The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

Jeffrey Mollins & Pierre St-Amant
We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth.

A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1

Joseph Atta-Mensah
This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator-model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addition to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation.

Bank Leverage Regulation and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Ian Christensen, Cesaire Meh & Kevin Moran
This paper assesses the merits of countercyclical bank balance sheet regulation for the stabilization of financial and economic cycles and examines its interaction with monetary policy. The framework used is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banks and bank capital, in which bank capital solves an asymmetric information problem between banks and their creditors. In this economy, the lending decisions of individual banks affect the riskiness of the whole banking sector, though banks do...

The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Brigitte Desroches
The first step in designing effective policies to stabilize an economy is to understand business cycles. No country is isolated from the world economy and external shocks are becoming increasingly important. The author documents the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in 22 emerging-market countries, and measures two specific shocks that could be transmitted from one country to another: a world real output shock and a world real interest rate shock. Her analysis shows that there are...

Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada

Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl
This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We use data from the Canadian financial system to show that these publicly available risk measures, while indicative of initial problems of the financial system as a whole, do not seem to correspond to risks implied by the cross-sectional heterogeneity in bank behavior in short-term lending markets. Strategies in, and reliance...

Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

Philipp Maier
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). Evaluating all models’ out-of-sample projections, we find that all the approaches can yield considerable...

Counterfeit Quality and Verification in a Monetary Exchange

Ben S. C. Fung & Enchuan Shao
Recent studies on counterfeiting in a monetary search framework show that counterfeiting does not occur in a monetary equilibrium. These findings are inconsistent with the observation that counterfeiting of bank notes has been a serious problem in some countries. In this paper, we show that counterfeiting can exist as an equilibrium outcome in a model in which money is not perfectly recognizable and thus can be counterfeited. A competitive search environment is employed in which...

Discounting in Mortgage Markets

Jason Allen, Robert Clark & Jean-François Houde
This paper studies discounting in mortgage markets. Using transaction-level data on Canadian mortgages, we document that over time there's been an increase in the average discount, along with substantial dispersion. The standard explanation for dispersion in credit markets is that lenders engage in risk-based pricing. Our setting is unique since contracts are guaranteed by government-backed insurance, meaning risk cannot be the main driver of dispersion. We find that mortgage rates depend on individual, contractual, and...

The Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan

Isabelle Weberpals
Japanese economic activity has been stagnant since the collapse of the speculative asset-price bubble in 1990, despite highly expansionary monetary policy which has brought interest rates down to record low levels. Although several reasons have been put forward to explain the sustained weakness of the Japanese economy, none is more intriguing from the viewpoint of a central bank than the possibility that monetary policy had been largely ineffective because the Japanese economy entered a Keynesian...

Money and Costly Credit

Mei Dong
I study an economy in which money and credit coexist as means of payment and the settlement of credit requires money. The model extends recent developments in microfounded monetary theory to address the choice of payment methods and the effects of inflation. Whether a buyer uses money or credit depends on the fixed cost of credit and the inflation rate. In particular, inflation not only makes money less valuable, but also makes credit more expensive...

Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples

Marie-Josée Godbout & Simon van Norden
This paper reconsiders several recently published but controversial results about the behaviour of exchange rates. In particular, it explores finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests and shows how these may have affected the conclusions of recent research. It also demonstrates how simple simulation methods may be used to check the robustness of cointegration tests in particular applied settings, and provides information on the potential sources of size distortion in these tests. Three case...

Entrepreneurial Incentives and the Role of Initial Coin Offerings

Rod Garratt & Maarten van Oordt
Initial coin offerings (ICOs) are a new mode of financing start-ups that saw an explosion in popularity in 2017 but declined in popularity in the second half of 2018 as regulatory pressure, instances of fraud and reports of poor performance began to undermine their reputation.

Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian
We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques to fill gaps in the real-time data. We show that real-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up...

The Sale of Durable Goods by a Monopolist in a Stochastic Environment

Gabriel Srour
This paper examines the sale of durable goods by a monopolist in a stochastic partil equilibrium setting. It analyzes the responses of prices and output to various types of shocks and notes the differences with non-durable goods and competitive markets. It shows that behavior in this model with constant marginal costs of production is in many respects similar to behavior under perfect competition with increasing marginal costs.

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